The Pacific province’s political polarities and swiftly shifting populations promise a series of down-to-the-wire races over the next two months.
And a slew of new ridings in the Lower Mainland and the B.C. interior make things even more interesting.
In all likelihood we’re looking at a series of Tory-NDP showdowns. But there are at least a couple of ridings strong Liberal candidates could pick up.
Much of the Fraser Valley and suburban Lower Mainland voted Conservative last time around. But pundits and prognosticators have pegged formerly blue ridings as ripe for NDP incursion.
“The B.C. Conservatives have dropped 17 per cent in the polls, and the NDP and Liberals have gained 7 per cent and 10 per cent, respectively, said Barry Kay, political scientist at the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy.
“There’s a real swing to the NDP in British Columbia this time.”
Tight Tri-City races
Surrey and the Tri-City area of Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam and Port Moody have seen stratospheric population growth over the past few years, thanks to both immigration and an exodus of people from the increasingly pricey Vancouver core.
That makes races in a series of newly drawn ridings essentially up for grabs.
“They’ve created more swing ridings,” Kay said. “Because that’s where people are moving into. That’s where the population changes.”
Interactive: We’ve superimposed poll-by-poll results from the 2011 federal election on the 2015 ridings. Find your address in the search box; click and drag to explore and move around
Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge
Heavily Tory in the last election, it’s possible the NDP could widen its toehold in Maple Ridge and take the new riding. Bob D’Eith is running for the NDP. Mike Murray is running for the Conservatives.
Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam
B.C. Liberal MLA Douglas Horne announced earlier this month he’s running for the Conservatives. He faces off against former radio journalist Sara Norman, who was interviewing James Moore when he said (and later apologized) that it isn’t his job to feed hungry children, who’s running for the NDP, and Liberal candidate Ron McKinnon, who also ran for the Liberals in the 2008 federal election.
Port Moody-Coquitlam
NDP MP Fin Donnelly is running against Tory candidate and Afghan veteran Tim Laidler.
Fleetwood-Port Kells
Tory MP Nina Grewal is running against NDP candidate retired Surrey RCMP Inspector Gary Begg.
Burnaby North-Seymour: Pipeline faceoff
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This was shaping up to be a battle between the Tories’ Mike Little, a former North Vancouver councillor, and retired judge Carol Baird Ellan, running for the NDP. Entrepreneur Terry Beech is running for the Liberals.
But Green Party candidate Lynne Quarmby, the Simon Fraser University cell biologist who made headlines when she was arrested protesting Kinder Morgan’s TransMountain pipeline, makes it a much more interesting riding, especially because the Liberal and NDP leaders have been cautious about coming out too strongly either for or against pipeline development.
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“You could have a really intense four-way race,” said UBC politics professor Max Cameron.
(Cameron noted, though, that “if the Greens take a second seat anywhere, it’ll probably be Victoria.”)
Surrey-Newton: Liberals look to unseat NDP
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Supremacy in this new riding, which was a close race four years ago, could come down to a race between NDP MP Jinny Sims and former Liberal MP Sukh Dhaliwal. Conservative candidate Harpreet Singh, a prominent local journalist, makes the riding competitive for the Tories, as well.
Vancouver-Granville: A competitive cornucopia
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This new riding combines bits of Vancouver Quadra, Vancouver Kingsway, Vancouver Centre and Vancouver South — ridings represented by three different parties in the House of Commons.
How it will swing this time around is anyone’s guess.
Liberal candidate Jody Wilson-Raybould, former Crown prosecutor and Regional Chief of the Assembly of First Nations, takes on the Broadbent Institute’s Mira Oreck, running for the NDP, and Conservative candidate, investment firm manager Erinn Broshko. Michael Barkusky is running for the Greens.
“Nobody really knows how this riding will [vote],” said Cameron.
“It doesn’t really have an identity yet.”
West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country: Star candidate battle
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Incumbent Tory John Weston could face a tough fight against former West Vancouver Mayor Pamela Golsdsmith-Jones.
“She’s got a good shot at that,” Cameron said.
Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon: Close, colourful race
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The southern interior riding was in the news recently for a particularly colourful campaign video from independent candidate Wyatt Scott.
Dragon-slaying aside, Scott doesn’t stand much chance of winning the newly drawn seat. But the formerly Tory area could go orange this time around: While the southern third of the riding voted fairly heavily Tory in 2011, polls near Spuzzum, Skookumchuk and Lytton voted NDP.
Liv Grewal, son of Tory MP Nina Grewal, was supposed to run for the Tories but was ditched because of what he called an “unfair political process.” New Conservative candidate Brad Vis is running against Liberal candidate Jati Sidhu, the Green Party’s Arthur Green and the NDP’s Dennis Adamson.
Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo and Cariboo-Prince George
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Cariboo-Prince George is supposed to be one of the safest Tory seats in B.C. — the Conservatives won by more than 20 percentage points in 2011. But MP Dick Harris is retiring after representing the riding for 20 years, leaving the race (potentially) open. Todd Doherty is running for the Conservatives against Liberal candidate Tracy Calogheros; the NDP, which came second in 2011, hasn’t yet nominated a candidate.
Kamloops Thompson-Cariboo, on the other hand, had a somewhat closer Conservative-NDP race during the last election. Incumbent Tory Cathy McLeod faces off against New Democrat Bill Sundhu, Liberal Steve Powrie and Green candidate Matthew Greenwood.
“The core metropolitan Vancouver ridings are kind of battlegrounds where the Liberals and NDP will pick up seats. I think the Conservatives’ best shots are in the suburban ridings and the interior. And you see that in some of the Conservative messaging, the issues that they’re focusing on,” Cameron said.
“If they can pick up some of those seats in the suburban parts of the Lower Mainland — Surrey, Delta, Chilliwack — and then hold their ground in the interior, where they often win by fairly wide margins, then I think they’ll do okay.”
But at the same time, Cameron noted, the NDP stands to gain, especially on Vancouver Island and in the Lower Mainland
“There’s potentially an opportunity for a big NDP breakthrough in B.C. They could actually double their seats.”
And rural regions tend to be polarized between political extremes, Cameron said.
“You’ve got the sort of hippie crowds, which are more left-wing, and then you’ve got a bunch of loggers.
“So they can be interesting, those ridings.”
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