The Ford government is planning to run $36 billion in deficits over the next three years, as the province braces for the long-term impact of the trade war with the United States.
Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy tabled the Fall Economic Statement on Thursday, including a nearly $4 billion contingency fund in this year’s budget to deal with multiple rounds of tariffs.
The government is earmarking billions of dollars in new spending over several years to provide tax relief incentives to businesses looking to expand, to shore up the automotive and steel manufacturing sectors and provide a tax break to homeowners looking to buy a newly built house.
At the same time, the government said, the province is seeing “increasing demand for health care, education and other critical public services” driving the need for deeper deficits and pushing back the province’s path to balance by another year.
Deep deficit spending
To cover the financial gap, the province is projecting a $16.9 billion deficit in 2026-27 – higher than what the government spent in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic – a number that’s 22 per cent higher than the original plan.
Much of that increase, however, is due to a $3.8 billion top up to the province’s contingency fund.
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Ministry of Finance officials said since the government tabled its budget in March the Trump administration has brought in several additional tariffs requiring additional funding.
Officials said most of that is expected to be used. If not, it will help pay down the deficit.
In 2027, the province is planning to more than double the deficit projection, which climbs from $6.1 billion to $12.7 billion amid “evolving economic and fiscal pressures.”
While the government planned to balance the books in 2028, it will instead run another $6.7 billion deficit in 2028.
In all three years, the government is tucking away billions of dollars into its reserve funds – a total of $9.6 billion will be held in a rainy-day fund, which typically gets used by the end of the fiscal year.
The marquee investment included in this year’s mini-budget is an $8 billion tax cut for businesses looking to grow their footprint. The province will mirror the federal government’s “productivity mega deduction” allowing companies to write-off 100 per cent of the value of a wide range of assets.
The government said the five-year tax cut is expected to attract $11 billion in capital investment to the province and potentially create up to 30,000 new jobs.
As Trump’s tariffs continue to weigh down Ontario’s manufacturing sector, the Ford government is also putting up billions of dollars as part of a joint $8.7 billion “Canada-Ontario action plan” announced by Premier Doug Ford and Prime Minister Mark Carney in October.
The fund will help steel companies find a new customer base and produce new products to boost sales, while the auto sector will see new investments to help manufacturing plans prepare for electric vehicle production.
The government is also projecting to add another $8 billion to the health care budget by the end of the decade, taking the province’s spending on frontline healthcare up to $108.2 billion.
Focus on savings
At the same time the fiscal document is filled with mentions of the province’s need to save money wherever it can, by reducing head counts, finding efficiencies and even guarding against “threat actors” who might use artificial intelligence to defraud taxpayers.
After years of deficit spending and a $220 billion infrastructure plan, the Ford government has driven up Ontario’s debt to nearly half-a-trillion dollars.
The ballooning amount means Ontario taxpayers will pay $17.4 on interest on debt alone this year – $1.4 billion per month – making it the fourth largest line item in the provincial budget.
With heightened sensitivity around spending, the Ford government dedicated several pages of the fiscal update to financial savings pledging to look for ways to “reduce incidences of error, waste, abuse and fraud” across government ministries.
Ministry officials said the province is looking to avoid $500 million to $1.25 billion in yearly losses in five years, by reviewing $50 million in yearly payments made as part of health insurance, drug benefit and student aid programs.
Officials also expressed concerns that the “cyber enabled criminal enterprises” might use artificial intelligence to take advantage of government programs, which means the province is shifting its focus away from recouping loss to preventing it from happening in the first place.
The province also said a hiring freeze across government agencies has also avoided “nearly $300 million” in costs, while the Premier’s Office will save over a million dollars after it reduced its head count by 10.
Ontario Place was always a pay to use venue on a man made concrete island. The only part of that venue that saw visitors for more than just a few months a year was the amiptheatre and the movie theater inside the sphere. Ever since the Libs boarded the rest up it fell into disrepaair so much that it has frequently been used as a backdrop in multiple film and tv productions as a post apocalyptic landscape, like in Apple’s TV show See, and on Paramount’s Star Trek Strange New Worlds. There is nothing vanity in bringing it back to life and making it a year round venue. Thats how part time jobs become careers, and nearby business go from nearly broke to booming.
Highway 413 has been needed for decades.
And you clearly are mixing up your highways, now that you want to throw 401 into the conversation you 🤡.
GO DOUG GO!!!!!
He is trying to help the people and small business during the reign of the tyrant south of the border . WAKE UP AMERICA!!!!! It would be GREAT if Comrade Trump lost control of the Senate and the House. GO DEMS GO !!!!!!
The spa and new Ontario place are vanity projects where the builders lied about their resume. The highway that offers little to improve the issues and research proves it. The tunnel would be the highest spendthrift ever. No doubt which anonymous is the clown.
The Clown 🤡 below thinks its a vanity project to have the largest subway expansion in 60 years, public transit projects in the 905, GO transit expansion, and a new highway that will with population growth.
Ford keeps stealing from tax payers for his vanity projects and blaming the US
I just checked my wallet, it’s empty, oh yeah Trudeau got it all, damn.
Trade war my ass
All of Canada has deficits, not just Ontario.
Better Ford that the shy$ters he replaced.
Doug is spending 36 billion on a highway nobody wants
Doug is spend 36 billion on a higher nobody wants
All of us are having to cut back on expenses in the current situation. Why is the Ontario Government preparing to spend more and hide away funds in a contingency fund that could be used for housing , education, health. You talk about it but you don’t put money where your mouth is. Cancel the spa! Cancel the 413!
Quote “waste, abuse and fraud” Sounds like Ford is imitating his buddy Trump. Ontario Conservatives couldn’t manage a lemon aid stand without bankrupting it.
Our premier is 100% as effective as he’s always been, and just as willing to take personal accountability for it. Sort of on par with what we see south of the border, he’s blaming others for his lack of ability to lead.
When will the voters in this province get their heads out of the sand and see the truths standing right in front of them?
He’s useless.