TORONTO – The killing of Osama bin Laden has Western governments bracing for possible retaliatory attacks, as al Qaeda may attempt to demonstrate it can survive its leader’s death.
The head of Interpol called for extra vigilance on Monday, saying there was a heightened risk from al Qaeda-affiliated and -inspired terrorists as a result of Bin Laden’s death in Pakistan.
The RCMP said it was conducting a threat assessment to determine how to respond. The force was examining what the killing could mean to Canadians, Canadian embassies abroad and American interests in Canada.
“We are assessing right now the potential impact that this may have on Canada,” said Assistant Commissioner Gilles Michaud, head of National Security Criminal Investigations.
He said it was too early to say what the reaction would be but that some reaction was expected. The Canadian government operates at maximum vigilance all the time, so the threat level has not been raised.
Western officials expect that terrorists will attempt to retaliate, and that they will do so quickly and powerfully. At the same time, “lone wolf” terrorists could see the killing as a trigger to launch smaller attacks.
Jihadists are already issuing threats. A eulogy posted Monday on the Shumukh al-Islam web forum, and translated by the SITE Intelligence Group, highlighted concerns that Bin Laden’s followers were eager for revenge.
“Let his enemies be miserable, for by Allah, we will take our revenge,” wrote Asad al-Jihad 2, described as a prominent member of the on-line jihadist community. “Whoever wishes this to be the end of jihad or a means to weaken the organization, I say to him: Wait a little!!!”
Another influential jihadist, Hussein bin Mahmoud, posted a message urging terrorists to hold back on revenge attacks and instead to plan a longer-term retaliatory strike, SITE reported.
“I call upon all the Muslims on the face of the earth, and all who support them of men, to hold back their tears and frustration from their souls until they become a volcano that erupts only at its
[proper] time,” he said.
“We do not want operations here and there for vengeance; instead, we want specific operations that are planned with wisdom and patience until they all come and make America forget the explosions of Washington and make them wish for those days.”
Prime Minister Stephen Harper acknowledged the continued threat in a statement. “Bin Laden’s death does not end the threat of international terrorism. Sadly, others will take his place.”
Two dozen Canadians were killed in the 9/11 attacks orchestrated by bin Laden. The daughter of a Canadian victim said Monday she was “in shock” after learning of Bin Laden’s death.
“Just woke up here in London, England to the news that Osama is dead,” Erica Basnicki wrote on her blog. “He killed my father, so I’m not going to miss him. I otherwise think I have gone into shock as my world has just changed quite significantly.”
Ken Basnicki was among two dozen Canadians killed in the al Qaeda attacks on the U.S. almost a decade ago.
“The thing is, my first reaction wasn’t really to break into a celebration dance and I’m not sure why. I guess dancing about someone dying feels wrong…although I’d certainly consider an exception this time round.”
Bin Laden had specifically threatened Canada at one point, and Canadian authorities disrupted several plots by his supporters to conduct attacks on Canadian soil, notably the Toronto 18 conspiracy.
In addition to the immediate fears of retaliation, in the longer-term, there are concerns that Bin Laden’s violent anti-Westernism may have resonated among a wider audience of radicals.
A recently declassified Canadian intelligence report warns that some now view Bin Laden as an anti-establishment figure whose message transcended Islam and the Muslim world.
“The al Qaeda message has contained elements that appeal to a wider, non-Muslim audience,” the Canadian Security Intelligence Service wrote in the “Secret” report, “The Global Appeal of Al Qaeda’s World View.”
“Bin Laden and [his deputy Ayman] Al-Zawahiri have tried to address issues that might garner them support in other protest movements. Traditional al Qaeda tactics, such as suicide bombings, could be seen as an effective tool by desperate activists.”
Bin Laden’s worldview was simple and violent: that Muslims had to use terrorism to defend themselves against the West’s so-called “war on Islam.” But he also tried to paint himself as a Robin Hood figure by associating himself with every cause from anti-poverty to global warming.
A particular worry is the way he popularized suicide bombings, which spread and spiked following the rise of al Qaeda. “It is possible that this tactic could be seen as desirable by other groups not motivated by Islam,” the CSIS report says.
“Conflicts such as that in Gaza could fuel convergences of militant movements. Al Qaeda may become more popular because bin Laden is seen as a champion of the poor and oppressed,” the report says.
The report quotes a 2007 Global Futures Forum workshop, which imagined a day when al Qaeda had “metastasized” into the Global Liberation Front, “a broad network of radical jihadists, super-environmentalists, anti-globalizationists, and ultranationlists” who seek to overthrow world order through terrorist violence.
sbell@nationalpost.com
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