A Canadian government report distributed on Monday said there was no indication of a credible threat to Jewish holiday events in this country but that a violent attack was still a “realistic possibility.”
The unclassified report was prepared by the federal Integrated Threat Assessment Centre following Sunday’s deadly terrorist attack at a Hanukkah gathering in Sydney, Australia.
“There is currently no observed reporting indicating an imminent, credible threat targeting the 2025 holiday season in Canada, including events associated with the Jewish community,” it said.
“However, we cannot discount a lone actor or small group using readily available weapons mobilizing to violence with little to no intelligence forewarning,” the agency wrote in the report.
“A violent extremist attack in Canada, including one targeting the Jewish community, remains a realistic possibility,” the threat assessment agency, known by the acronym ITAC, concluded.
The report was marked “official use only,” but a copy was obtained by Global News from a source. A government official confirmed its authenticity to Global News.
The agency has been using the term “realistic possibility” to describe the chances of an attack on the Jewish community for more than a year in the aftermath of the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel.
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Since then, Canada’s Jewish community has experienced rising antisemitism in the form of hate crimes as well as gunfire, arsons and bomb threats targeting Jewish schools and community institutions.
Last year, the RCMP disrupted an alleged ISIS-inspired plot in Toronto, and arrested a suspect in Quebec as he was allegedly on his way to conduct a mass shooting at a New York Jewish centre.
In late 2023, the RCMP also broke up a suspected plot to attack a pro-Israel rally on Parliament Hill. Two minors who were allegedly inspired by ISIS have been charged with terrorism offences.
On Sunday, a 50-year-old and his 24-year-old son opened fire at a Jewish holiday celebration at Australia’s Bondi Beach. Fifteen died and dozens more were injured by the attackers, whom the report said had pledged allegiance to ISIS.
The ITAC report said the attack had no known links to Canada. Police have said they would increase their presence in Canada’s Jewish communities.
“Further, it is unlikely that this event in isolation will trigger an imminent domestic attack over the holiday period,” ITAC wrote. “Previous Canadian violent extremist attackers have not been driven to violence by international attacks or other similar incidents.”
The Canadian report said the victims in Australia’s mass shooting were likely targeted because of the “religious significance” of the event and the accessible nature of the site.
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It categorized the incident as Religiously Motivated Violent Extremism, saying the attacker who survived was investigated for six months due to his ties to a group of ISIS supporters.
“There is also a realistic possibility that the inspiration for this attack and subsequent target selection came from the 7 October 2023 attack in Israel and/or follow-on impacts felt in the West,” it said.
The “current threat environment” includes several foiled attacks as well as successful ones, increased propaganda from ISIS and Al Qaeda and Iranian-directed plots, according to the report.
“These same conditions and drivers exist in Canada, to differing degrees, and it is a realistic possibility that the Jewish community in Canada could be targeted by a violent extremist actor or actors.”
At the same time, white supremacists and accelerationists will likely seize on the attack in Australia to spread anti-immigrant narratives, ITAC wrote.
Stewart.Bell@globalnews.ca
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