After a masterful 4-0 win over the Florida Panthers on Saturday, the Montreal Canadiens kept the momentum going in Tampa Bay on Sunday. The Habs, who are playing their best hockey of the season, outshot the Lightning 36-22 in posting a 5-2 win.
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The Canadiens had the worst second line in the league three weeks ago, and it wasn’t even close. They were dominated in goal differential to such a degree, that just about the entire -30 goal differential the Canadiens had was on that one line.
This weekend, we may have seen the emergence of a much more competitive and even respectful second line. Kirby Dach was a -21 three weeks ago. He remains at that total, so that is a significant improvement – stabilizing rather than continuing to decline.
All season long, the second line had only nine goals before the arrival of Patrik Laine. Since then, they’ve more than doubled the total in the last 12 games. Laine is making the entire line look good. Dach scored twice against the Panthers on Saturday, and Alex Newhook got his first two assists of the season. Laine was instrumental in both goals.
Against Tampa, the line was strong again, opening the scoring. Laine is a moose to take off the puck in the offensive zone and often pulls in an extra defender to handle him. That led to Mike Matheson finding a wide-open Newhook who ripped a one-timer into the top corner.
The move to acquire Alexandre Carrier has also had a knock-on effect. Carrier’s arrival has allowed Kaiden Guhle to play on his left side where he is more comfortable. They are an outstanding pairing with great chemistry. They partnered on the second Montreal goal, setting up Christian Dvorak.
Carrier being top-four has allowed David Savard to play his best defence of the season. Savard has been getting easier match-ups on the third pair. He is also getting less ice time which he finds more manageable as he ages. Often a strong hockey team is simply having players slotted in the right roles.
Jake Evans is certainly enjoying his role as a fourth-line centre. He is tearing apart his match-ups. In fact, the top-scoring fourth line in all of the NHL is Evans, Emil Heineman and Joel Armia. Evans ripped another one into the top corner for Montreal’s third goal.
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Evans has scored in five straight games. He has ten goals on the season which is fourth in the club. Evans continues to make the case for a big contract and someone in the league will give it to him.
It was yet another goal from the fourth line that seized the game late in the third period. Heineman won a strength battle to cause a two-on-one. He then fed a perfect pass to Armia who one-timed it for a 4-2 lead.
Right now, four lines are rolling in their right spots, and the defence all look comfortable with their ice time and their match-ups. It’s a big improvement over a second line getting caved in every game, and the defenders not being comfortable with their partners and match-ups.
Montreal is a completely different club than it was in October. In that first month, the Canadiens were getting destroyed on an analytics basis. Every trio and every partnership was getting a 35 per cent Goals Expected number – there was not a single metric that was flattering for the team.
This weekend, the Canadiens played two of the strongest teams in the league in their own buildings, and they handled it tremendously. Montreal has had a 50 to 55 shot share against the strong teams during this impressive run in the last dozen games. Against the poorer teams in December, Montreal is carrying a 70 to 75 share.
This Christmas trip through Florida the last three years has been that humbling and not-so-festive season when the Canadiens realized they just were not good enough.
This year, the Canadiens discovered there is much to play for in 2025.
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Juraj Slafkovsky is playing better hockey on the first line, but this giant young man still does not realize how difficult it is to handle him physically. His choices are still often a product of a lack of belief in his ability to win a battle.
There are many examples when he is one-on-one and his best choice is to take on a defender. Slafkovsky can use that giant frame to protect the puck on the left with his hands, lower his shoulder, and drive with his legs at his defender. He will win those engagements more times than he’ll lose. Slafkovsky, instead, mostly takes it to the corner or moves to take himself out of the danger areas.
He is making more successful passes, and better choices overall, but there is so much more there for when he realizes his own potential. It is a matter of faith and experience.
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No one should lead you astray. Get the truth now or get it later, but the truth shall be revealed and it shall matter. The truth for the Canadiens is that the playoff math is extremely difficult. The hole is deep and the way out is a mountain to climb. However, bring on the mountain because it is possible.
The target for the Canadiens to make the playoffs is 93 points. Montreal needs 60 points from its last 47 games. That is a 30 and 17 record to finish the season. It seems insurmountable but look at it through a different lens. Let a recency bias take hold – see the team instead as a new entity with Patrik Laine and Alexandre Carrier on the roster. It is a much better team.
In his 11 games, Laine has eight goals and one assist. His arrival has revitalized the power play. His arrival has been transformative. Laine’s input was what the Canadiens management had in mind when they said the club could be in the mix.
Carrier has only four games for the Canadiens, but it is obvious he has stabilized the right side to make the club considerably better defensively.
Also, add Jakub Dobes in net, or in this case, subtract the .835 of Cayden Primeau. Moving to a .900 goalie from an .835 means the Canadiens can win a game with three goals instead of seven. Putting 15 games in the auto-loss column in the final 47 was insurmountable. Now, with Dobes, it appears there’s a chance in those 15 games, if he is as poised and strong as his first effort.
These changes speak to a better Canadiens club in the final half of the season to come. The Laine effect has produced a 7-4 record since his arrival. If the Canadiens can repeat that with three more wins than losses every 11 games, their record would be 30-17. That’s 93 points.
Taken in its massive context, 30-17 does not seem possible, but 7-4 every eleven games is enough and they just did it.
Watch with hope, because there actually is some. And watch with an eye to a record of 7-4 every 11 games.
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