In the final stretch of a Montreal byelection campaign widely seen as a referendum on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s leadership, the Liberal candidate wants people to focus on her — not her leader.
The byelection in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun should have been Laura Palestini’s to lose. The area has been a Liberal bastion, by and large, for decades. A diverse riding in Montreal’s southwest, it has a large anglophone population with strong Italian roots in some neighbourhoods.
But this time, it’s hard to predict what will happen when polls close on Monday. After nine years in power, surveys show the Liberals trailing the Conservatives in every part of the country except Quebec. And even here in Montreal, a riding that should have been a given is now up for grabs.
What little polling there is suggests a three-way race between the Liberals, New Democrats and Bloc Québécois. A Mainstreet Research poll this week put the Bloc in the lead.
Palestini seems to be trying not to dwell on all of that. In an interview while door-knocking in LaSalle on Thursday, she repeated several times that it’s her name on the ballot — in other words, not Trudeau’s.
“It’s about me. It’s not about the PM,” she said. “I will let myself be the … prime focus of this election.”
LaSalle is friendly turf for Palestini, and it showed when she went door to door. She spoke to an elderly woman in Italian, pointing out where to find her name on a scaled-down version of the nearly metre-long ballot voters will have to navigate on Monday.
A record 91 candidates are on the ballot for this byelection, most affiliated with a group protesting Canada’s first-past-the-post voting system. Palestini wants to be sure no one has trouble finding her in the sea of names.
A couple out for a walk — Pat Goill and Harold Layer — told Palestini she can count on them. Give him a chance, they told The Canadian Press afterward, when asked about Trudeau’s declining popularity. They’ve always voted Liberal.
Palestini is well known in LaSalle. A lifelong resident, she has been a municipal councillor for 19 years. Élisabeth and Yannick, a couple with young children, said they’re happy with the services in the neighbourhood, including a new library and skate park. They cast their ballots for Palestini in the advance polls.
Of the riding’s disparate neighbourhoods, LaSalle is the most staunchly Liberal. Getting out the vote here is a key part of Palestini’s strategy. “The reception is extremely positive,” she said. “I’ve had five mandates at the municipal level, so definitely I’m already at an advantage because when I do knock on a door, many people will recognize me.”
Elsewhere, though, it’s a different picture. In nearby Ville-Émard, Sylvie Sagala said she’ll likely vote Bloc — maybe NDP. “Trudeau doesn’t have good ratings these days,” she said. “A little change wouldn’t hurt.”
The NDP and Bloc are pulling out all the stops to take the seat from the Liberals. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has visited several times to support his candidate, city Coun. Craig Sauvé, who told The Canadian Press last week that his party has the biggest army of volunteers in the riding.
Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet was in the riding Wednesday with a delegation of MPs, urging supporters not to get complacent. “It’s certain that if the Bloc Québécois wins in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, it will send a very strong message to Ottawa,” said Bloc candidate Louis-Philippe Sauvé.
In contrast, Palestini has given few interviews through the campaign, and Trudeau has kept a relatively low profile. His face is not on campaign posters, and some mailers don’t mention his name at all. He visited the riding in August, and stopped by again on Friday to visit a seniors home in LaSalle. The event was closed to media.
Asked about the byelection at a press conference in the Montreal area on Friday, Trudeau took aim at the NDP for deciding last week to end the supply-and-confidence agreement that had helped keep the Liberal minority government afloat. He accused Singh of “caving to the political pressures” from the Conservatives.
“That’s not what Montrealers expect and deserve,” he said.
Trudeau aside, a steady stream of Liberal ministers has visited the riding in recent weeks. On Thursday, Palestini’s entourage included Liberal Party campaign co-chair and Tourism Minister Soraya Martinez Ferrada.
In an interview, Ferrada downplayed the stakes of Monday’s results. “I would remind people that we have lost byelections and won general elections,” she said. “We’re doing everything humanly possible to make sure that we are winning this riding. We don’t take anything for granted. But the main focus is getting ready for the general election.”
Nevertheless, a loss in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun would sound a dire warning for the Liberals, especially after they lost another former stronghold to the Conservatives in a Toronto byelection in June. That surprise defeat prompted calls for Trudeau to step aside, though he has insisted he will lead the party into the next election, which could happen anytime in the coming year.
The Conservatives are not likely to be competitive this time around. Candidate Louis Ialenti, who describes himself on LinkedIn as a “sartorial, legal and entrepreneurial enthusiast,” recently told The Canadian Press he’s knocked on 15,000 doors.
The Tories’ Quebec lieutenant, Pierre Paul-Hus, said doubling the party’s vote share from the last election would be a success. In 2021, the Conservatives took home a little less than eight per cent of the vote.
But Philippe J. Fournier, creator of poll aggregator 338Canada, said it’s impossible to know whether the Liberals, NDP or Bloc will win on Monday.
“This is one of the rare times that I publicly say that I truly have no idea,” he said. “Anybody who tells you with certainty, ‘Oh this person is going to win,’ they are fooling themselves.”
If the Liberals lose, Fournier said, they could be looking at winning just 50 to 65 seats across the country in the next election, out of 343. “We’re in blowout territory,” he said.
Palestini insisted she’s not focusing on “anything negative” in the last days before the vote. “This election remains my campaign. It’s my name that’s on the ballot,” she said. “And I have no reason to think of this election in any other way.”
— with files from Stéphane Blais and Morgan Lowrie