Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative Party will begin nominating candidates in a matter of weeks, including sitting ministers who plan to run again, marking the latest sign Ontario is heading toward an early election call.
Energy Minister Stephen Lecce and Agriculture Minister Rob Flack were among the PC MPPs to confirm they would run again in an upcoming election when asked by Global News, with both expecting to be nominated within weeks.
“I look forward to being nominated in the fall and I refer you to the party for details on that process,” Lecce said, while Flack said he expected his nomination to be confirmed in October.
“We are ready, we’re excited, but our focus today is governing… we’re focused on delivering affordable energy, keeping taxes low, standing up against the carbon tax. That’s actually what motivates all of us every day.”
Ontario Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner said the flutter of PC nominations had him increasingly expecting the long-rumoured early election.
“Historically, the earliest you’d be looking at getting nominated is a year out from an election,” he told Global News.
“So, the fact that the government is talking about nominating candidates a year-and-a-half out from an election shows that they’re more interested in playing politics and possibly having an early election than actually governing the province.”
Confirmation the governing PCs are beginning to nominate candidates for re-election adds fuel to ever-growing anticipation of an early election call in Ontario.
At the end of May, Ontario Premier Doug Ford sent opposition parties scrambling to prepare for a snap poll when he repeatedly refused to rule out calling an early election. Since then, he has said Ontarians won’t go to the polls in the fall but ruled out little else.
The Ontario Liberals, NDP and Greens have spent the summer dusting off their campaign machinery and preparing to fight an early election. Leaders toured the province while nominating some of their sitting MPPs to run again as candidates.
The NDP is in the process of nominating others. Between Sept. 5 and Sept. 7, Lisa Gretzky, Catherine Fife and Lise Vaugeois will all have nomination meetings, followed by John Vanthof on Sept. 23 and Kristyn Wong-Tam on Sept. 26.
On Sunday, the Ontario Liberals also began to nominate fresh candidates to contest Tory-held seats.
With nine sitting MPPs who can run again in their ridings, the Liberals need to nominate an extra 115 candidates if they are to contest every riding in the province. The first to be announced was Elizabeth Mendes, a small-business consultant who will run under the Liberal banner in Mississauga-Lakeshore.
Andrew Perez, principal at Perez Strategies and a Liberal strategist, said the Grits would be ready for the next election, whenever it is.
“I don’t think the Ontario Liberal Party and Bonnie Crombie are going to be fooled by that,” he said, suggesting early election rumours could be partly to destabilize the opposition.
“We’re doing our due diligence, we’re vetting our candidates, we’re going to have robust nominations and so it’s really balancing the speed of being ready, and having those candidates ready, with having a process that’s comprehensive to ensure that we’re attracting the best and brightest.”
The date Premier Ford could call an early election remains unclear, though he has ruled out the fall. The next ballot is currently scheduled for June 4, 2026, and an earlier call is widely expected.
Some had been watching the Bay of Quinte byelection — triggered by the resignation of former education minister Todd Smith — as an indicator. Ford, however, almost immediately called a snap byelection to replace the cabinet minister, with voters to go to the polls locally in September.
“There’s three options before Doug Ford when it comes to the next election: fall 2024, spring 2025 and spring 2026, which is the fixed election date,” Perez said.
“It’s unclear what direction they’re necessarily moving in… this is a majority government with 78 seats, they hold the keys to when the next election happens. They are, by the very nature of being the incumbent government with 78 seats, they have the clear advantage.”
Despite struggling through the Greenbelt scandal last year, Ford’s PCs have consistently led the pack in recent polling.