Nenshi will need major boost in NDP popularity to win 2027 election: analyst

One of the issues newly minted Alberta NDP leader Naheed Nenshi will face is how to grow the party’s popularity among Albertans, according to a Calgary-based political commentator.

Almost 73,000 party members cast their ballots in the party’s leadership race on Saturday, which saw Nenshi, a former Calgary mayor, defeat Jodi Calahoo Stonehouse, Sarah Hoffman and Kathleen Ganley in a landslide victory.

Nenshi, the first person from Calgary to lead the New Democrats, replaces Rachel Notley, who announced in January that she would step down from the role after 10 years to make room for a new leader.

Janet Brown, a pollster and political commentator, told Global News that Nenshi will need to go beyond returning the NDP to the levels of support seen during the 2015 “orange wave” to form government in the next election.

“Getting back to 2015 is not enough; 2015 was this perfect storm,” she said.

“The right was divided. We had the Wildrose (Party), we had the Progressive Conservatives and there was that ill-fated floor crossing that Danielle Smith was the star of.”

The Progressive Conservative Association of Alberta and the Wildrose Party merged in July 2017 to form the United Conservative Party.

“That meant the NDP could win with something in the low 40 per cent vote,” Brown said. “Forty per cent is not enough for a victory when you’re running against a united right.”

Brown said Nenshi needs to figure out how to “burst through that glass ceiling” to win a majority government.

He’ll also need to decide whether the Alberta NDP will cut ties wth the federal NDP — something he raised during the leadership campaign.

“The NDP is in striking distance after losing two elections in a row, after losing a leader,” she said.

“We wondered whether Alberta would go back to being a one-party state, but Nenshi seems to have ensured that we’ve got two competitive parties. Now he’s got to work to make his party competitive enough.”

Brown plans to monitor how Nenshi navigates his relationship with Premier Danielle Smith as he settles into the job.

During his victory speech, Nenshi wasted no time in launching attacks against his newest political foe, describing Smith’s United Conservative Government as small-minded.

“This extraordinary movement that we created together is an example of what is possible when we stop thinking small and start thinking big,” he told the crowd on Saturday.

On social media, Smith congratulated Nenshi soon after his win, saying, “Serving as opposition leader is a great honour and I look forward to the dialogue we will have on how best to serve Albertans.”

Brown said the pair have a relationship that dates back to the 1990s when they were students at the University of Calgary, noting how they were part of the same debate club.

History like this could make for a lot of sparring matches, she said.

“What that means is they know how to push each other’s buttons. They’re not going to spend a lot of time getting to know each other’s strengths and weaknesses,” Brown said.

“They already know that and we’re just going to spend the next three years watching them push each other’s buttons.”