Welcome back to another season of Call of the Wilde. Let’s enjoy another season together watching this franchise do a proper rebuild.
Night one of 82 certainly started with a tough test. Many believe this is the season that the Toronto Maple Leafs break through to enjoy a long playoff run. The Montreal Canadiens‘ aspirations are more modest as they simply try to continue to improve at the NHL level, while their best prospects tear it up in development leagues.
Montreal put in a strong effort, before finally falling in a shootout in a terrifically entertaining game 6-5.
Wilde Horses
In the second period of the season opener in season two, Juraj Slafkovsky had the best sequence in his career. It was the moment that he finally showed all the promise that he has. It was the moment that he was drafted first for — the why behind the choice.
Slafkovsky hit his check behind the Canadiens net. The rush up ice had already started. Every player on the sheet, except the Leaf he folded up on the hit, had at least 15 feet on Slafkovsky. That did not deter him as he showed a speed that doesn’t get appreciated, because big men take big strides.
Slafkovsky somehow joined the rush well enough to make the Canadiens advantage a 3-on-1.
Slafkovsky got the pass from Kirby Dach who had it on the right side, leaving the second-year behemoth to make a quick decision. He had the shot in the middle, but he saw Alex Newhook on his left side. He quickly dealt it left and Newhook had his first as a Canadiens player with an easy, open net, tap-in.
Slafkovsky showed size to crush his man on the hit, then he showed speed to actually lead a rush that he had no business even joining, then he used his smarts to make the perfect pass. If you can make hits like that, show speed like that, make plays like that, you are an NHLer.
This is why they drafted him first. Kent Hughes, Jeff Gorton, and in some rink somewhere in North America doing his work already for the next draft, Nick Bobrov were likely all smiling widely.
Now, for Slafkovsky to repeat that moment over and over again. That’s the challenge, but it’s not the biggest challenge. The biggest challenge is having the ability to do it even once. This was a major moment in the development of Slafkovsky. It wasn’t at the Worlds, or the Olympics, or in a pre-season game; it was in the NHL.
It was the first great moment for the newest line of the Canadiens centred by Dach, who makes everyone he plays with better.
The Canadiens had many outstanding performances: David Savard broke up an odd-man rush beautifully, Jake Evans took a breakaway 120 feet then put it to the roof, Sean Monahan made a thousand great small plays due to an unrivalled brain for the game, the line of Caufield-Suzuki-Anderson was difficult to handle with Caufield counting one, and Newhook looks like an outstanding addition with two goals already.
Arber Xhekaj also had a monster game with a big fight win over Ryan Reaves, solid defence and an underappreciated offensive skill set that includes a sly ability to get the shot on net from the point.
However, it was Slafkovsky who stood out. They need him to be worthy of that first overall selection. In the first game of his second season, for the first time, he was.
Wilde Goats
The Leafs played better than Montreal only on special teams, which remains a weakness of the Canadiens, it appears. However, the Leafs power play will make a lot of teams look bad.
Jake Allen would like the first Toronto goal back as he was beaten by a relatively weak shot from a poor angle. The fourth goal against for Allen was also from the side of the net when he didn’t hug the post properly.
If the Canadiens play in this manner this season, they’ll win a good share of their games.
Wilde Cards
Pundits all across the NHL believe another difficult season is ahead for the Canadiens. The most optimistic see Montreal as the fifth-worst NHL team while the pessimistic see them as third worst. Everyone seems to agree they’ll be last in the Atlantic Division.
While there are no miracles seen here at Call of the Wilde, the expert predictions seem quite dire. Montreal had 68 points last season. This year, expect 80 points. It’s another year outside of the playoffs, but the step ladder toward respectability sees the Canadiens climb another rung.
The number one reason for improvement on the horizon for Montreal is because they couldn’t possibly suffer injuries at the same pace as last year.
The Canadiens lost their best defenceman, their second-best defenceman and their top-scoring forward all for half a season. All other things being equal, your best players actually playing means more wins.
Cole Caufield was on his way to Montreal’s first 40-goal season this century when he had to retire for the second half of the year due to shoulder surgery. His loss of goals was irreplaceable. Montreal finished with only 232 goals on the year. When they are a top flight team again, that total will need to be around 285.
They also lost Kaiden Guhle to countless injuries. Though a rookie, Guhle was the second most consistent defender on the club. More than that, when Guhle and Mike Matheson, the club’s best rearguard, were both out at the same time, Montreal’s level of defending dropped significantly.
Matheson, last year, turned into a top-pair defender. His quality was better than at any time in his career. His zone exits were outstanding. His transition ability was far and away the best on the team. When he was lost to injury, the Canadiens suffered tremendously. Should he remain healthy this year, the stability he brings is definitely worth wins.
With those three players returning, and the overall record-shattering man-games lost total not repeating, there is no possible way the Canadiens come in at 71 points as a major sports organization predicted.
That is unless Samuel Montembeault comes back to his old reality. It was a breakout year for the Canadiens goalie. He stole at least five games and perhaps as high as 10. He had the 12th best Goals Saved Above Expected in all of the NHL. If not for Montembeault, it is not far-fetched to say the Canadiens could have drafted first last summer.
Goaltending is always a wild card. The prediction here of a leap from 68 points to 80 points is predicated on Montembeault not falling back to his second-tier self before he arrived in Montreal.
Two more minor reasons are considered in the 12-point jump for the Canadiens.
The first is the roster has more players on the upswing than down. Expectations are that the four rookies on the blue line last year will continue to grow their games; that Kirby Dach’s growth spurt will continue; and that Juraj Slafkovsky will improve on his meagre output from his rookie season.
The final reason is the arrival of another former first-round draft choice in Alex Newhook. At 22 years of age, this is often the breakout year for an NHL forward. Newhook had 14 goals last season on a stacked Colorado team. In Montreal, he will get top-six minutes. General Manager Kent Hughes is hoping for 20 goals and more per year from Newhook.
At the end of any prediction is math. Wins and losses are calculated in goals for and goals against. Providing health is attained, add goals from Caufield, Newhook, Slafkovsky and the Canadiens should be able to attain 255 on the season.
Matheson present for the entire year, and a much more stable blue line than dropping in four rookies should lower the goals against from an abysmal 307 allowed to a less abysmal 290.
Last season, 255 for and 290 against was very close to the total of the St. Louis Blues who finished with 81 points.
If the goaltending doesn’t hold up, and the injuries pile up, the top two picks in the draft are absolute offensive studs in Macklin Celebrini and Cole Eiserman. This rebuild cannot finish until the GM Kent Hughes adds another elite scorer.
Whether you are a Habs fan who wishes to improve to 80 points for the progress of the rebuild, or don’t wish for that yet because Celebrini or Eiserman are attainable, the Canadiens are in a good spot. They have good defensive pieces in place and more coming, while offensively they need one more game-breaker.
So let’s drop the puck and play the games knowing tomorrow continues to look better than yesterday.
Brian Wilde, a Montreal-based sports writer, brings you Call of the Wilde on globalnews.ca after each Canadiens game.
Comments