A majority of Albertans think leaving the CPP for a proposed Alberta pension plan is a bad idea, according to polling done after the province released a report in favour of the move.
Abacus Data surveyed 1,985 Canadians, including 500 Albertans, online between Sept. 28 and Oct. 5 to ask about awareness of the proposal.
Nationwide, 44 per cent of respondents thought it was a bad or “very bad” idea. In Wild Rose Country, 52 per cent of those polled were against it.
Seventeen per cent of Canadians said it was a good or “very good” idea, with 19 per cent of Albertans sharing that sentiment.
More than five times more Albertans surveyed said an “APP” was a very bad idea compared to a very good idea.
“As this debate continues, and just on the heels of the report that the government released, they still have, I think, a tough road ahead to convince people that this is something that the province should do,” David Coletto, founder and CEO of Abacus Data, said.
Premier Danielle Smith and Finance Minister Nate Horner released the government-commissioned Lifeworks report on Sept. 21, which claimed Alberta would be due $334 billion, or 53 per cent of Canada Pension Plan funds if it left the CPP. A provincial advertising campaign launched on the same day.
“So far, the provincial government hasn’t been able to change a whole lot of minds here,” said Duane Bratt, a political scientist at Mount Royal University.
The idea didn’t have universal support among UCP supporters that Abacus spoke with. Thirty per cent thought it was a good idea and 22 per cent thought it was ok. Twenty-nine per cent of UCPers thought it was a bad idea.
“I’m not sure I would be going into a referendum if I only had a bare majority of support within my own party, let alone the rest of Albertans,” Bratt said. “It would be as if Rene Levesque was thinking about having his sovereignty referendum in Quebec and only 55 per cent of members of the PQ (Parti Quebecois) supported it. He would not have gone forward.”
Albertans closer to or already collecting their pensions were less in favour of the province going its own way.
Nearly two thirds – 64 per cent – of Albertans aged 60-plus thought it was a bad idea and 17 per cent thought it was a good idea.
That proportion of people in favour was the same in the 45 to 59 age range, with 52 per cent opposed to it.
“Messing around with their pension is incredibly anxiety-inducing and so the most opposition is going to come from – and it shows up in our survey – those (people) that are either currently benefiting from the Canada Pension Plan or will be shortly,” Coletto said.
He noted that older Albertans who are more likely to push back against the idea are the same demographic who largely support the UCP.
Of Albertans polled, aged 30 to 44, just less than half – 47 per cent – thought it was a bad idea and 19 per cent thought it a good idea.
Albertans who have less experience in the workforce, aged 18 to 29, were more in favour at 29 per cent. Twenty-five per cent of that cohort thought it was an ok idea and 31 per cent didn’t like it.
The results showing younger respondents in Alberta, who were more likely to vote NDP in the last election, were more open to an APP presents an interesting opportunity, Coletto said.
“In a weird turn of events on this one particular issue, Danielle Smith and the UCP are finding common cause with a demographic that doesn’t normally think the things that they’re doing are good,” he said. “That’s the nature of pension politics.”
While Abacus’ polling showed 90 per cent of Albertans had heard of the APP proposal, 43 per cent of Canadians polled hadn’t heard of it at all.
“The rest of Canada hasn’t even engaged on this issue yet,” Coletto said. “If this becomes something that looks imminent or really real to happen, there’s going to be federal political implications.”
“Politicians outside of Alberta aren’t commenting on it,” Bratt said.
“Something like this is certainly not going to help create unity across the country,” Coletto noted.
Same sentiment 20 years later
Bratt said the Abacus poll mirrors Albertans’ long-standing opposition to leaving the CPP.
“That has been consistent for over 20 years,” the political scientist said. “Even the Fair Deal panel’s own polling showed it was unpopular.”
Bratt purported that’s the reason for the emphasis on large numbers like starting an APP with $334 billion in seed funding or supposedly saving $5 billion in the first year.
“By coming up with such an astronomically-large number, it could allow them to have a survey instrument that said, ‘You get to choose. Do you want lower contributions? You want higher retirement benefits? Do you want a retirement bonus or do you want all of the above?’” he said.
Multiple experts have said the prospect of Alberta leaving the CPP with 53 per cent of its funds didn’t add up.
With two years until an expected referendum, Coletto said the sentiment could change.
“There’s some, I think, area for persuasion,” he said. “But I think the real risk in this is even if you could find 51 per cent of Albertans who think this is a good idea, that’s going to leave a real sharp divide among Albertans.”
Bratt said the long runway leaves the government some time to “create the winning conditions,” in Jacques Parizeau’s words.
“Is the astronomically high number part of those winning conditions? Absolutely. Is fighting Ottawa over emissions of electricity to try to create those winning conditions? Absolutely,” the political scientist said. “But they’re starting from behind.”
Bratt noted that Smith has been writing about an Alberta pension plan for two decades and Rob Anderson, executive director of the premier’s office, co-authored the “Free Alberta strategy” which also advocated for pulling out of the CPP.
“I think the premier and the UCP are playing with fire,” Coletto said. “Retirement security is as real as it gets, especially at a time when people are feeling so insecure about their finances and about the future.”
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