Scandals don’t stick to BC’s Teflon Liberals

The B.C. Liberals show no sign of dropping their public pretence that all is well in the world, and that their hold on power in this province will not end anytime soon, no matter how many controversies may befall them.

Whether it involves school trustees complaining about a lack of funding for classrooms, or outcries over political fundraising and the generous salary the B.C. Liberal party provides Premier Christy Clark, or grumpiness over ever-rising B.C. Hydro rates, ICBC rates, MSP premiums and what have you, the B.C. Liberals just sail along seemingly unperturbed about anything.

How to explain this hubris, this entrenched confidence, this sense of being bullet-proof no matter what?

A big part of the answer lies in their entirely unexpected, yet decisive election victory in 2013. If you recall, the B.C. Liberal government was beset with internal strife just before the election campaign and seemed to be falling apart.

Polls suggested the NDP was 20 percentage points ahead in public opinion, and victory for it seemed in plain sight. People were clamoring for change, or so the polls suggested.

Clark herself seemed unpopular, and not particularly liked by a number of members of her own caucus. Things looked decidedly bleak for her and her party, and yet when the smoke cleared on election night, not only had the B.C. Liberals won but they had held their seat count.

This verdict of the voters seems to have convinced the B.C. Liberals of two vital points Clark chanted mantra-like before the election:  that people don’t focus on politics until an election campaign actually begins, and when they do they think mostly about their economic future above everything else.

The premier and her colleagues insist controversies over things such as fundraising or school board funding or questions about B.C. Hydro’s accounting methods are simply the equivalent of so much noise for average folks and won’t determine the outcome of next spring’s election.

They may be entirely correct. After all, many folks (including myself) thought that controversies and scandals of varying degrees would have played a key role in the last election’s outcome, and they most certainly did not.

It’s important to remember that governments of all stripes build up an impressive pile of scandals over time, and they don’t necessarily lead to electoral disaster. The old Social Credit party in this province held power for 36 of 39 years, despite a long record of mishaps, controversies and scandal.

So the premier and her party are betting that nothing has changed. They look at their chief opponent — the New Democratic Party — and see a party associated with losing far more often than winning, and for not being known for having a strong, credible reputation when it comes to anything to do about the economy.

The NDP continues to try to find its political footing, and don’t seem the most confident or contented group of people. They continue to give the B.C. Liberals plenty of angles of attack when it comes to talking about economic issues.

No matter what the NDP throws, the B.C. Liberals seem to laugh it off, apparently convinced their opponent’s brand is a broken one.

Then there’s the electoral math: the NDP needs to steal about eight ridings from the B.C. Liberal column in the next election to win. It means convincing more than 2,000 people who voted for the B.C. Liberals in 2013 in those particular ridings to make the switch and vote NDP next spring, a daunting task.

And so the B.C. Liberals add it all up, and think it points to an election decision that has favored its side in 15 of the last 18 contests.  People vote with their wallets, so they believe, not with their emotions.

As I have noted, they be quite right. But it doesn’t necessarily make for good government, just for a perpetually electable one.

Unless, of course, things become undone by all that hubris and apparent complacency.  And then that hold on power can suddenly look very shaky.

Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global BC. This is reprinted from his weekly column with Glacier Media.