WASHINGTON – The once seemingly impossible presidential bid of Bernie Sanders is on a roll. The socialist senator is favoured to win yet another primary Tuesday, in Wisconsin.
Each success defies critics who deride his campaign as a zombie: dead, still pestering Hillary Clinton and hurting the candidate who will be the Democratic nominee.
But does Sanders have a living, breathing chance? Here are some facts on the state of his campaign.
His policies:
Consistently to the left of Clinton. Wants single-payer health care, like Canada. Higher taxes, especially on the wealthy. Free college tuition. Paid parental leave like other industrialized countries. Would break up the big banks, cap credit-card interest at 15 per cent and oppose NAFTA.
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Clinton has adopted his opposition to Keystone XL and to the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal. One rare area where she’s to his left is gun control; they both favour new measures, but she has a more aggressive policy on allowing lawsuits against gun-sellers.
His status:
Clinton has about 56 per cent of delegates so far; Sanders has 44 per cent. These are the people who’ll choose the nominee at the summer convention. They’re being awarded on the basis of primary results in each state. To close that gap, Sanders needs to win about 57 per cent of the remaining delegates.
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That’s Step 1. Then there are the so-called superdelegates – elected party officials. They cast about 15 per cent of votes at the convention. Clinton dominates that category. Sanders supporters call that undemocratic. They say superdelegates would have to yield to the popular will and change their votes, should he win the regular delegates.
What’s next?
Nearly half the delegates – around 2,000 – have yet to be selected. They’re being awarded proportionally, based on the results in each state. On Tuesday, Sanders is likely to win a few more than Clinton in Wisconsin. But the big prizes are New York on April 19, Pennsylvania the following week and California on June 7. Those three states have more delegates than the rest, combined.
What the polls say
They say Sanders has made spectacular gains – but not spectacular enough. Sanders must win comfy majorities to catch up, given that he’s behind by 12 per cent with elected delegates and losing even worse among superdelegates. Not only is he not winning big; the latest polls say he’s not winning at all.
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In New York, polls the last few days showed him losing by 10 percentage points or more. In Pennsylvania, they showed him down by at least 25 points. The California polls are a bit out of date; ones a few weeks ago showed Clinton leading by a margin of at least seven percentage points. If these polls are accurate, he wouldn’t catch up; he’d fall farther behind.
General election matchups
The primary argument against Sanders was that the 74-year-old socialist would be demolished by the Republicans. The argument is evaporating. Polls show him performing better than Clinton – in an average of polls compiled by the website RealClearPolitics, he led Sen. Ted Cruz by 10 percentage points and Donald Trump by 16.
Clinton led Cruz by only three, and Trump by 11. That comes with a big asterisk: Republicans and conservative media have barely laid a glove on Sanders yet. These same outlets have been pounding at Clinton for years – most recently over her email scandal, her role in the Benghazi affair and her family’s business ties. The campaign against Sanders would begin, should he be the nominee.
What they’re saying
Clinton pollster Joel Benenson says the senator will be mathematically eliminated in three weeks. In a media conference call, he said: “The truth is that after April 26th there is just simply not enough real estate left for Sen. Sanders to close the commanding lead that we’ve built… He can’t win close elections and make big dents into our pledged delegate lead… He would have to continually win at a rate he has rarely been able to win at.”
What he’s saying
Sanders told ABC last weekend his momentum is growing: “We’ve won the last six out of seven caucuses and primaries. It is very hard for superdelegates in a state, say like Alaska, I think, where we won 82 per cent of the vote, not to go with the will of the people in that state. In addition… our campaign is a stronger campaign against people like Donald Trump.”
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