TORONTO — The Blue Jays lost a lame, low-scoring game to the awful Atlanta Braves on Tuesday, but there’s still good news for Jays fans, as the magic number has dropped to 12. Or maybe that’s not good news, since you don’t know what that means. Trust us, it’s good news.
It’s been a long, long time since magic numbers had any relevance to Blue Jays fans, so if you’re a little rusty, or totally unfamiliar with the concept, here’s how it works.
The magic number is any combination of wins by a first-place team – the Jays, in this case – and a trailing team that results in the Jays clinching their division or a playoff spot. The Jays need 12 to make the playoffs, 16 to clinch the American League East.
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Toronto has 18 games left in the regular season, including tonight’s rematch against Atlanta. A team as hot as the Jays can certainly win 12 out of 18 games, but they don’t have to. They can still make the playoffs by winning just six of 18 as long as their rivals lose six. Or any other combination of wins and losses that equals 12.
And sure, the Jays are playing well, but it won’t be easy. Of their next 18 games, 16 are against AL East rivals, including the ever-challenging Yankees, the Orioles, another tough team with whom the Jays have developed a nasty rivalry and the Tampa Bay Rays, who typically give the Jays fits.
For the teams trailing behind the division leader, the magic number is sometimes called the “tragic number,” since it represents that team’s elimination from playoff contention. It’s all about mathematical elimination, and it can get a brain-twistingly complicated.
There are multiple teams in the mix and the number can fluctuate more than one game at a time. For example, if the Jays win and the second-place Yankees lose, the magic number drops by two.
The most important point is that right now it’s a combination of Jays wins and Minnesota Twins losses. The Twins currently sit just outside the playoff pool, so sufficient losses leave them eliminated, guaranteeing a spot for the Jays.
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And if you can’t be bothered with the math, there’s a simpler takeaway: MLB.com says the Jays have a 100 per cent chance to make the playoffs and they’re also the current favourites to win the World Series.
But, as we said, there are tough games ahead. Combine that with some critical injuries and the next few weeks could be a nail-biter. As you should expect, because since when does a Toronto sports team make things easy on the fans?
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