REGINA – One day into the federal election campaign, it appears Saskatchewan could play a role if there’s a change in government.
Right now, just one seat in our province is held by a party that isn’t the Conservatives.
Here’s a look at four ridings that could have close race in October.
Saskatoon West
The battle lines have been re-drawn and that may may be felt most here. Made up of urban portions of Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar and Saskatoon-Wanuskewin, the now city-only riding would have gone to the NDP under the new electoral boundaries by 2,618 votes.
The old ridings were typically large Conservative victories, but University of Saskatchewan political scientist Joe Garcea suggests Saskatoon West will be worth keeping an eye on.
“This is probably one of the best chances the NDP has had in the last couple of elections to win some of those close ridings in Saskatoon and Regina,” he said.
There’s no incumbent here, the 2011 vote re-distribution suggests it would be a two-way race between the Conservatives and NDP.
“They’re strong candidates, but none of them have a significantly better chance than the other, so it’s fairly evenly matched.”
Regina-Lewvan
A new, all-urban riding made up of two districts that were large Conservative wins in 2011, however the redrawn map would have also seen this seat go to the NDP by a small margin.
“The more conservative areas have been eliminated from these constituences,” Garcea said. “I think it’s really up for grabs.”
The leading candidates are fairly well-known: Conservative Trent Fraser, who leads a marketing firm; NDP Erin Weir, a union economist who ran federally in 2004 and briefly had his hat in the 2013 provincial NDP leadership race; Liberal Louis Browne, a local lawyer and former Regina city councillor.
Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River
Another riding to watch is in the far north. Re-distributed, Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River voted Conservative by less than two percentage points in 2011. Garcea points to the region’s demographics (70 per cent Aboriginal) as a reason voters could change their minds in 2015 because of recent grievances with the federal government.
“There’s a strong sentiment a Conservative government is not necessarily the most sympathetic government on Aboriginal issues,” Garcea said. “Therefore, it’s going to cost the Conservatives.”
Garcea notes the riding has elected Liberal and New Democratic candidates since it was created in 1997. In 2006, Liberal Gary Merasty defeated incumbent Conservative Jeremy Harrison by just 68 votes.
WATCH BELOW: U of R political scientist Jim Farney breaks down the political landscape ahead of the lengthy 11-week campaign (Aug. 1)
Regina-Wascana
Former Finance Minister and deputy Liberal leader Ralph Goodale will aim for his eighth term in Ottawa, but the races have became closer since a landslide victory of nearly 12,000 votes in 2004. Goodale beat Conservative candidate by only 1,532 votes in 2011. However, it’s likely Goodale will be helped by an “urbanizing” of this riding’s boundaries.
He’ll be challenged by Conservative Michael Kram, NDP April Bourgeois and Green Party candidate Frances Simonson.
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