February 25, 2015 3:24 pm
Updated: February 25, 2015 7:52 pm

Conservatives, Liberals virtually tied: exclusive poll


WATCH: An exclusive poll shows that the Liberals are pulling ahead of the Tories by a hair. Eric Sorensen has the details.

OTTAWA – The federal Conservatives and Liberals are once again neck-and-neck in terms of support, an exclusive new Ipsos Reid poll for Global News reveals, with the Grits pulling just one point ahead of the ruling Tories.

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If an election were held tomorrow, the Justin Trudeau Liberals would receive 34 per cent of the decided vote, while Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservatives would receive 33 per cent, the poll says.

READ MORE: Conservatives pull ahead of Liberals, could be on cusp of majority: poll

The NDP, led by Thomas Mulcair, would receive 23 per cent of the vote.

“This tight race appears to be the natural resting point for public opinion in Canada,” says an Ipsos Reid release.

“When one party jumps ahead, the advantage doesn’t last long and the two leading parties return to a tie.”

The tightest races are expected to take place in Ontario and Quebec.

federal horse race

The poll says the Conservatives and Liberals are in a dead heat in Ontario, at 37 per cent each. The NDP is at 23 per cent.

And in Quebec, it’s a three-way race between the Liberals (31 per cent), the NDP (27 per cent) and the Bloc Quebecois (26 per cent). The Tories trail at 15 per cent, the poll says.

In other provinces, support is as follows:

  • British Columbia: Conservatives lead at 39 per cent, followed by the Liberals at 34 per cent, and the NDP at 21 per cent;
  • Alberta: Conservatives at 54 per cent, Liberals at 27 per cent, NDP at 16 per cent;
  • Saskatchewan and Manitoba: Tories at 45 per cent, NDP at 27 per cent, Liberals at 26 per cent;
  • Atlantic Canada, Liberals lead at 47 per cent, NDP at 26 per cent; Conservatives at 24 per cent.

Nationally, the Liberals are up three points since January, while the Tories are down two points, the poll says.

In the last year, support for the Liberal party has fluctuated between 31 and 38 per cent, which the pollsters attribute to Canadians getting to know Trudeau. By contrast, Conservative support has stayed between 31 and 35 percent, because they are a known quantity, say pollsters.

The Official Opposition NDP has remained consistent throughout the year, fluctuating by only one point, the poll says.

Support for the Bloc Quebecois is at six per cent nationally, and 26 per cent in Quebec, while the Greens under Elizabeth May are at 3 per cent.

Another 13 per cent of voters remain undecided.

The poll was conducted between Feb. 17 and 23, 2015. A sample of 2,650 Canadians (including 2,128 decided voters) from Ipsos’ Canadian online panel was interviewed online. The poll is considered accurate within +/2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The data, summaries and commentary in exclusive Global News / Ipsos Reid polling are subject to copyright. The data, summaries and commentary may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper attribution to both Global News and Ipsos Reid in all web articles, on social media, in radio broadcasts and with an on-screen credit for television.

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