October election could bring historic results for the GTA

TORONTO – The October 27 vote could prove to be one for the history books. If the polls hold, we could get a result we have never seen in this region.

You have to go all the way back to 1973 – 41 years ago – when both Toronto and Mississauga had to print business cards for brand new mayors.

That’s the year that Ron Searle took office in Mississauga and David Crombie began his reformative reign at Nathan Phillips Square.

But real history – as in a first-time-ever moment – could happen if the polls in Brampton hold. It would be the first time the three largest municipalities in the GTA would be run rookie chief magistrates.

The mayoralty campaigns in Brampton and Mississauga may have been overshadowed by the race to replace Rob Ford but, don’t kid yourself, these battles have a nasty streak.

The latest Forum Research poll suggests mayoralty challenger Linda Jeffrey a 25 percentage point lead over incumbent Susan Fennell.

Rick Drennan is the Managing Editor of the Mississauga News and Brampton Guardian. He understates Mayor Fennell’s challenge.

“She’s scrambling right now. It’s tough and the numbers aren’t good for her.”

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The Brampton mayor has been staggered by a recent forensic audit suggesting Fennell violated spending rules some 266 times over a seven year period.

Drennan says voters in Brampton are engaged and angry.

“The electorate is galvanized against the mayor and the numbers prove it,” he said.

You may not sense the same level of frustration among Mississauga voters but there has been a good deal of sniping between the front running campaigns. There’s a lot at stake for the community as it moves into the post Hazel era and there’s not a lot of space between the top two candidates.

The same Forum poll suggests Steve Mahoney enjoys the lead at 43 per cent but Bonnie Crombie is within the margin of error at 39 per cent.

Both Mahoney and Crombie will tell you they don’t want to talk about polls but Mahoney admits he’s gratified to show a lead. Crombie dismisses the Forum robocall survey and makes sure I know her camp has some very thorough internal polling that puts her six points up.

Either way, they both agree it’s a tight race.

The difference between delivering a concession speech or being fitted for the chain of office will have less to do with who-gets-the-vote and more to do with who-gets-the-vote-out.

It has ever been thus but it’s all the more important in Mississauga when you consider the voter turnout was a dismal 29 per cent in 2010. Admittedly, there was no real race. Hazel had long been installed as the Monarch of Mississauga.

So how do the Crombie and Mahoney camps engage residents to get out to vote. Some of them are just realizing that Hazel isn’t on the ballot this time around.

Nonetheless, McCallion’s presence will loom large long after she passes here scepter to the next mayor.

The Hazel factor will be tough to shake when you consider the Forum Research suggests she has a higher approval rating than both front runners.