Get ready for a wet, wild winter.
We’re headed into a La Niña year the likes of which haven’t been seen since 1955, according to Washington state climatologist Nick Bond.
“It’s shaping up to be a lively one,” Bond said Thursday, before adding a typical forecaster’s warning.
“There’s really no guarantees. If you think of it like a card game with cold weather as the aces, this year there’s a few more aces in the deck.”
La Niñas occur when the ocean near the equator is cooler than usual.
Bond said temperatures for this time of year are the coldest since 1955, and the pattern could continue as we head into winter. Ocean temperatures affect air circulation, and cool air can lead to more rain and snow and colder temperatures.
While that doesn’t mean we’re guaranteed the worst winter on record, there’s certainly the potential for a bad one, says Environment Canada meteorologist David Jones.
“La Niña is like the cold cousin of El Niño,” Jones said. “The dice are loaded in favour of colder weather.”
There are many examples of La Niña years that received less snow than “neutral” years, but six out of the eight past La Niña years saw above-average rainfall between October and December and below average temperatures between January and March.
The Farmers’ Almanac is also predicting a cool year.
According to the 2010-11 forecast, “winter temperatures will be a bit below normal . . . with below-normal precipitation and above-normal snowfall.”
Bruce Fatkin, manager of the Langley Community Farmers’ Market, said local farmers might read the almanac, although it is with “tongue planted firmly in cheek.”
But he conceded that weather is a “huge factor” in farming, with winter weather occasionally affecting early crop growth and wind and snow causing damage to tender plants and branches.
“You learn very early as a farmer, you have to be able to take your lumps,” he said. “The weather is out of our control.”
Barbara Bednarski with Goat’s Pride Dairy in Abbotsford said a cold winter can be hard on livestock. The goats give less milk when it’s chilly because more of their energy goes into keeping warm. It also means higher costs for farmers. Goats are unable to forage for food under heavy snow, meaning feed needs to be brought in, and goats that are giving birth require heat lamps on cold nights, leading to large heating bills.
“It definitely causes challenges,” she said.
Wild weather can also cause transportation chaos Рlike the Christmas storm that brought traffic to a standstill in 2008, a very weak La Ni̱a year.
TransLink spokesman Drew Snider said the transit system monitors weather forecasts closely and operates a “snow plan” when needed.
“If you think back to 2008, there are times when nothing can move,” he said. “But there’s a pretty good bet we’re going to get some snowfall every winter, and we prepare for that.”
The B.C. River Forecast Centre is also aware of the upcoming La Niña winter.
“There is a likelihood of more flooding than in an El Niño or neutral year,” said a statement sent to The Province. “Expected impacts from October to December include an enhanced chance of above average precipitation.”
The forecast does not affect how the River Centre prepares for flooding “as we always make extensive preparations for flooding.”
An increased snowpack could be good news for summer water supplies, salmon and skiers.
“We are very excited about this,” said Grouse Mountain spokesman William Mbaho. “Obviously it’s great news for skiers and snowboarders who are looking to hit the slopes . . . Any time we hear it’s going to be a cold winter, we’re happy.”
Mbaho said wildlife at the top of Grouse are preparing for the cold, with the bears putting on winter weight.
“They’re entering a stage of food obsession,” he said.
The record for the highest single-day snowfall in Vancouver came in 1996 when 41 cm fell on Dec. 29, smashing a record from 1916.
People still talk about the “Blizzard of 1996,” when hundreds of motorists were stranded in their cars on the Trans-Canada Highway near Chilliwack, and others waited for the snow to melt in the houses of strangers and temporary shelters. The roof of an apartment building in Victoria collapsed, and planes were grounded at Vancouver International Airport.
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