A significant winter storm is on the way for B.C.’s South Coast.
Environment Canada is warning the storm will bring heavy snow, freezing rain and rain on snow or ice.
This will make travel very challenging ahead of the holiday weekend.
According to Environment Canada, a Pacific frontal system combined with the cold Arctic airmass over B.C. will bring another round of snow to the South Coast starting Thursday night.
Accumulations of 10 to 20 centimetres are possible, depending on the location.
As the freezing level rises, the snow will then change to rain later Friday over Vancouver Island and Friday night or Saturday morning over the mainland. Freezing rain is also possible during the transition.
The storm could create blowing snow, which could result in near-zero visibility.
Environment Canada said the exact precipitation amount and timing of the changeover to rain is still uncertain but it appears the combination of “impactful weather” will begin early on Friday.
The winter storm watch is in effect for: east Vancouver Island, the Fraser Valley, Greater Victoria, the Malahat between Goldstream and Mill Bay, Howe Sound, the Sea to Sky region from Squamish to Whistler, inland Vancouver Island, Metro Vancouver, the southern Gulf Islands, the Sunshine Coast, west Vancouver Island and Whistler.
Matt MacDonald, the lead forecaster at the BC Wildfire Service, shared his thoughts on the weather forecast on his LinkedIn page.
He said he has been forecasting for 20 years and has “rarely been so concerned about a weather forecast.”
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He called this incoming storm a “textbook prolonged freezing rain” event for the Fraser Valley, adding it will have major impacts.
“Following our Arctic Outflow pattern, Road Weather Information Sensors (RWIS) are reporting road surface temperatures near -15C, i.e. roads are frozen rock solid,” MacDonald wrote. “As a major coastal valley, the Fraser Valley holds onto Arctic air longer than most. Weather models have a well-documented weakness in eroding and flushing out the Arctic air too fast. This has the unintended result of forecasting rain as opposed to freezing rain (FZRA).”
He said the Environment Canada models are showing about 30 hours of freezing rain and the strengthening outflow “will act to replenish and deepen the Arctic air prior to Thursday night’s warm front, (and) this has all the makings of a very messy meteorological medley.”
With the incoming rain, MacDonald said an atmospheric river will bring between 50 to 80 millimetres of rain and with the warming air the rain falling into the Fraser Valley will freeze immediately on contact with everything, creating an “instantaneous coating of sheer ice.”
He is recommending no one travel between the coast and the interior of B.C. on Dec. 23 or 24.
B.C.’s South Coast is already still dealing with the effects of the heavy snow that fell over the past few days.
The snowfall, in addition to unprecedented low temperatures and arctic winds brought many regions to a standstill, including Vancouver’s airport where travellers were stuck on planes for hours Sunday night.
Some travellers were stuck on the tarmac for up to 13 hours before staff could get them safely off the plane.
Extreme cold warnings have also been issued for Alberta, Saskatchewan, parts of Manitoba and Yukon.
The National Weather Service in Seattle is also tracking the incoming storm and said the Friday morning commute may be very slippery and dangerous.
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