Their arrival atop a cresting “blue wave” of Democrats in 2018, two years into the caustic presidency of Donald Trump, heralded a bold new era of young, diverse and left-leaning political power on Capitol Hill.
Four years later, the prospect of a countervailing Republican wave in the 2022 midterm elections stands poised to embolden and empower the bulk of the change-minded progressive caucus inside President Joe Biden’s party.
Wait, what?
Welcome to the polarized world of U.S. politics, where the forces of change tend to wash away the moderate swing-vote middle, leaving only the safe-seat edges of the ideological spectrum as shelter from the coming electoral storm.
“In effect, if a party gets wiped out, the caucus becomes more extreme – it moves closer to the ideological end,” said Michael Berkman, director of the McCourtney Institute for Democracy at Penn State University.
“So I’m not sure that (progressives) lose power. In fact, they may gain power – both because they’re a larger percentage of the overall Democratic caucus, but also because they can say, ‘We lost – you should have listened to us.’”
They are far from infallible, of course: the perception that moderates are more electable is a big reason why Biden – not Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren or Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders – won the Democratic nomination for president in 2020.
A number of progressive Democrats failed to survive primary season, notably in New York, where the rise to power of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez four years ago was a breakthrough moment for liberals.
And while the state’s moderate incumbent governor, Kathy Hochul, steamrolled leftist rival Jumaane Williams in the primaries, she now finds herself in a closer-than-expected battle with Republican challenger Lee Zeldin.
Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar, one of the most prominent and controversial members of the coalition of progressive Capitol Hill Democrats known as “the Squad,” narrowly squeaked through a primary challenge earlier this year – a closer call than she’s expected to face next week defending her solidly Democratic seat.
Nor are established progressives safe by any means: Cook Political Report, one of the most closely watched political barometers in Washington, this week moved California Rep. Katie Porter’s Orange County district into the “toss-up” category.
In a recent interview with Politico, Sanders, a self-described socialist who’s long served as the standard-bearer for progressive politics in Washington, dismissed the notion that liberal Democrats have been keeping a low profile this cycle.
Quite the opposite, said Sanders, who sees his mission as mobilizing younger voters.
“If we do not create a sense of excitement in young people and working-class people and our voter turnout is not high in a midterm election, I think Democrats may be in a lot of trouble,” he said.
“That’s what we are trying to do.”
Berkman is quick to point out that he’s not predicting a Republican blowout in next week’s midterm elections. But conventional political wisdom and recent polling both suggest the momentum is with the GOP.
Should that come to pass, the surviving progressive members of the Democratic caucus will likely find a measure of freedom in being out of power in Congress.
“Those more ideological members are at a real advantage now, because they don’t have to make policy, they don’t have to pass bills and they’re totally in an oppositional role,” Berkman said.
“They’re trying to make policy when they’re in the majority, but they’re not going to be trying to make policy when they’re in the minority.”
But while progressives may take on a more oppositional role in Congress, one place they are likely to find themselves with less leverage is the White House, said Chris Sands, director of the Canada Institute at the D.C.-based Wilson Center.
Previous Democratic presidents found themselves forced to adopt a more centrist posture when dealing with a Republican Congress – and that’s likely to be the case for Biden, whose party, too, will be dealing with a new political reality.
“The thing that happened to both Clinton and Obama is once they had a foil – whether it was a House or Senate chamber run by the Republicans – they had an ability to navigate closer to the center in American politics,” Sands said.
“They could say to the progressives pushing the envelope on one end, ‘Look, I don’t like them any more than you do, but if we’re going to get things done, we have to find a way to peel off some of these votes and we have to work with their leadership.’”
Whatever happens, the next two years in Congress are likely to be turbulent, Berkman said.
Republicans have vowed everything from impeachment proceedings against Biden to congressional investigations of his son Hunter, whose finances have long been an object of fascination for the president’s political enemies.
And noted bomb-throwers like Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene could well find themselves playing more prominent roles within the House and the party machinery, he added.
“I’m not sure I can even imagine what the next couple of years is going to be like,” Berkman said.
“Marjorie Taylor Greene moving into the leadership of the House Republican party – what would it mean for the party if that were the case? All signals are to me that she probably is being elevated within that party.
“So what else is she interested in, beyond chaos?”
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