Heavy rain forecast to last until Friday is bad news for Saskatchewan farmers who have already left millions of acres unseeded due to wet conditions this spring.
"Saskatchewan will see 15 to 30 millimetres, on average, of rain through to Friday," said Drew Lerner, World Weather Inc. senior agricultural meteorologist.
"The lightest amounts of rain will be in the southeast region of the province, with much heavier rains occurring in southwest Saskatchewan. Some southwest areas could receive up to 90 mm of rain."
The Saskatoon area should expect 30 to 60 mm of rain in the next four days, he predicted.
Environment Canada senior climatologist David Phillips said 50 to 70 mm of rain is the typical amount for the month. He said rains will make a bad problem worse.
"The situation has moved beyond being a conversation point and is now affecting people financially," said Phillips.
"People are just worn out by it. It’s becoming almost a bankruptcy kind of situation."
There are 10 million unseeded acres in the province, said agriculture analyst Larry Weber.
"This is the most unplanted acres we’ve had in the history of our province," said Weber.
Only 70 per cent of the 2010 crop has been seeded, noted Saskatchewan Agriculture Minister Bob Bjornerud.
If the latest weather forecast holds, farmers won’t get much more than that in the field, he said.
"I’ll have to commend farmers’ efforts if we manage to get 75 per cent seeded," he said.
With $200 of gross revenue lost per unseeded acre, said Weber, that’s $2 billion taken out of Saskatchewan’s agricultural industry.
The crop insurance program cost-shared between farmers and the provincial and federal governments can pay $50 per unseeded acre to farmers, said Weber, but, "We are still $1.5 billion short."
The payouts on unseeded acres will cost provincial and federal governments $300 million to $400 million, predicts Bjornerud.
Agribusinesses such as seed, fertilizer and pesticide companies and farm equipment dealerships will also lose revenue this season, said Weber.
"It’s ugly and there is no other way of describing it," he said.
To make matters worse, a second weather system is predicted to begin next week, extending wet conditions into a 10-day period.
Weber said the long-term wet weather will hinder weed control.
"The biggest fear is if this rain happens over the next three days and another weather system occurs next week, it will keep our guys off the field and they will lose the battle on weeds and lose yields," he said.
"The big question is now, how do we protect what we’ve got? If this rainfall materializes that we are forecasting, we are in deep s—.
"I don’t think the government yet realizes what is heading down their pipe."
Bjornerud noted federal Agriculture Minister Gerry Ritz has been invited by the provincial government to visit Saskatchewan, and Ritz said Tuesday he is trying to find a time to see affected areas.
June 20 is the seeding deadline for crop insurance and governments will better know how many acres have not been seeded after June 25, when crop reports are released.
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