Questions remain in crowded Winnipeg mayoral race, pollster says

A local pollster says Winnipeg’s already-crowded mayoral race is due, in part, to the fact that current mayor Brian Bowman isn’t running for re-election.

“The fact that there’s 13 candidates, that is fairly high,” Curtis Brown of Probe Research told Global News.

“It’s not surprising in the sense that you don’t have an incumbent mayor this time… if it’s more open, you’re going to have more people who are going to definitely be interested.”

It’s been a struggle so far, he said, for many candidates to gain traction with their messaging, but it’s still early days.

“It is crowded, and I think it is somewhat difficult. The candidates have had a little bit of difficulty trying to get their platforms across so far — but again, it’s a long race and there’s lots of time,” he said.

“I think people will really start paying attention a little bit more closely after Labour Day ad as we get into the fall and a little deeper into the campaign period.”

A Probe report last week puts candidate Glen Murray — who previously served as Winnipeg mayor almost 20 years ago — as the clear frontrunner, enjoying the support of 44 per cent of voters polled.

Brown said Murray will be tough to be beat, but his lead isn’t insurmountable — Judy Wasylycia-Leis pulled similar numbers in 2014, before ultimately being defeated by Bowman.

0:38 Kevin Klein to join crowded Winnipeg mayor’s race

Coun. Kevin Klein recently added his name to the mix, after the survey suggested one-third of Winnipeggers polled would consider voting for him should he decide to run for the city’s top job.

Although Klein said he had been planning a run for mayor well before the poll’s results, Brown said he found the timing of Klein’s announcement surprising.

“We asked about people who were already in the race and people who were maybe rumoured to be thinking about it,” he said.

“Kevin Klein had a reasonable floor of support — about a third said they would consider him.

“Compared to Glen Murray, certainly, and compared to a couple of the other candidates, he seems to have a bit of a lower ceiling of support, but it’s early — the election’s still three months away. A lot can change, a lot can happen… and once you get in there, you never know.”

Questions that remain, Brown said, are whether Murray can maintain his support, and whether some of his challengers — like Coun. Scott Gillingham and former MP Robert-Falcon Ouellette — can improve their numbers, currently in the mid-teens, to make some strides forward in the polls.

Brown said he’s also curious whether the addition of Klein to the race means it might be more difficult for a more conservative candidate like Gillingham to consolidate his support.

“The question, I think, is going to be whether one of them or someone else is going to get a bit of a bump.”

Murray, Klein, Ouellette and Gillingham will be joined on the October ballot by 2018 runner-up Jenny Motkaluk, former provincial Liberal leader Rana Bokhari, as well as Shaun Loney, Don Woodstock, Rick Shone, Idris Ademuyiwa Adelakun, Desmond Thomas, Jessica Peebles and Chris Clacio.

0:34 Former mayor Glen Murray head and shoulders above competition in Winnipeg election poll