The European Commission is planning for all scenarios regarding gas flows to Europe through Russia’s Nord Stream 1 pipeline, including the possibility that deliveries do not restart on Thursday when maintenance on the pipeline is due to end, a spokesperson said.
“We are working on every possible scenario, and one of the scenarios that we have to factor in contingency planning is the possibility of flows not restarting,” the spokesperson for the European Union executive told a press briefing on Tuesday.
The Wall Street Journal reported earlier that the Commission did not expect Nord Stream 1 to restart after its annual 10-day maintenance, quoting European Budget Commissioner Johannes Hahn.
“We’re working on the assumption that it doesn’t return to operation,” Hahn told reporters in Singapore, according to the Journal.
Asked about those comments, the spokesperson said the Commission was basing its contingency planning for gas supplies this winter on the assumption that there could be a complete halt to Russian gas flows.
“We are working on the worst possible scenario. And that scenario, and assumption therefore, is that Gazprom would no longer deliver any gas to Europe… We are basing our winter preparedness plans on the worst possible scenario,” he said.
The Commission will publish plans on Wednesday for how EU countries could cut gas demand now, as Brussels braces for further drops in Russian gas deliveries and attempts to fill gas storage ahead of winter.
A draft of the EU plan, seen by Reuters, would suggest countries launch financial incentives for companies to cut gas use, and use state aid to encourage industries and power plants to switch to other fuels.
EU officials said the Commission was also considering setting targets for countries to curb gas use – but that discussions were ongoing about whether such targets would be binding or voluntary.
Reuters reported on Monday that Russia’s Gazprom had told customers in Europe it cannot guarantee gas supplies because of “extraordinary” circumstances, adding to fears that Moscow may not restart the Nord Stream 1 pipeline on Thursday.
The Russian state gas monopoly said in a letter dated July 14 that it was retroactively declaring force majeure on supplies from June 14. The news comes as Nord Stream 1, the key pipeline delivering Russian gas to Germany and beyond, is undergoing 10 days of annual maintenance scheduled to conclude on July 21.
Known as an “act of God” clause, force majeure is standard in business contracts and defines extreme circumstances that release a party from their legal obligations. The declaration does not necessarily mean that Gazprom will stop deliveries, rather that it should not be held responsible if it fails to meet contract terms.
Gazprom did not respond to a request for comment.
Russian gas supplies have been declining via major routes for some months, including via Ukraine and Belarus as well as through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline under the Baltic Sea.
Gazprom cut Nord Stream 1 capacity to 40 per cent on June 14, the date that Gazprom said in the letter to buyers would be the start of the force majeure.
Gazprom blamed sanctions for that reduction, citing the delay in the return of a gas turbine from maintenance in Canada by equipment supplier Siemens Energy.
Canada sent the turbine for the pipeline to Germany by plane on July 17 after repair work had been completed, Kommersant newspaper reported on Monday, citing people familiar with the situation.
It will take another five to seven days for the turbine to reach Russia, the report said, provided there are no problems with logistics and customs. Germany’s economy ministry said on Monday it could not provide details of the turbine’s whereabouts.
But a spokesperson for the ministry said it was a replacement part that was meant to be used only from September, meaning its absence could not be the real reason for the fall-off in gas flows prior to the maintenance.
The European Union, which has imposed sanctions on Moscow, aims to stop using Russian fossil fuels by 2027 but wants supplies to continue for now as it develops alternative sources.
— with files from Reuters’ Julia Payne
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