B.C.’s population will grow faster than any other province in Canada over the next 25 years — potentially topping seven million by the year 2036 — according to projections released Wednesday by Statistics Canada.
And it will be a much older province than it is today, with almost a quarter of its residents over the age of 65.
There are currently 4.5 million people living in B.C., making it the third-largest province after Ontario and Quebec.
How the province, and the nation, grows over the next quarter century depends on a number of factors such as immigration levels, fertility rates and life expectancy.
In projections released Wednesday, Statistics Canada said B.C.’s population could rise to anywhere between 5.8 million and 7 million residents depending on whether the country experiences low, medium or high population growth over the next two decades.
Under all three scenarios, though, B.C. will be the fastest-growing province in the country.
A high-growth scenario, for example, would mean B.C.’s population will rise 56 per cent over the next 25 years, to seven million people.
That’s well ahead of both second-place Ontario at 49 per cent and the national average at 41 per cent.
Under a low-growth strategy, in contrast, B.C.’s population would only rise 30 per cent to 5.8 million.
But that still places it well ahead of both second-place Ontario (24 per cent) and the national average (19 per cent).
Even under the most aggressive population projections, B.C. would remain the third-largest province, behind Ontario and Quebec.
But its proportion of the national population would rise slightly, from 13.2 per cent today to around 14.5 per cent in 2036.
Like all provinces in the country, B.C.’s population will also age significantly over the next quarter century as the baby boomers enter retirement.
By 2036, senior citizens will make up roughly 25 per cent of B.C.’s population, up from just 14 per cent today.
And the province’s median age will rise from 40 to 45.
That places B.C. pretty close to the national average — neither older nor younger than the rest of the country.
Newfoundland and Labrador is projected to be Canada’s oldest province by 2036, with a median age of 50 and 30 per cent of its population over age 65.
Manitoba will be the youngest, with a median age of 42 and 22 per cent of its population over age 65.
The youngest part of the country, however, will be the nation’s territories.
Nunavut will have a median age of just 25 in 2036 — only slightly higher than it is today — and only six per cent of its population will be over the age of 65.
The rapid aging of Canada’s population could pose challenges for social programs and pension plans geared towards the elderly.
Today, there are five working-age people for every one senior citizen in the country.
By 2036, that ratio is expected to drop to just two and a half to one.
cskelton@vancouversun.com
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