A string of fresh sanctions against Russia will not deter the Kremlin, experts say, amid mounting concerns from the West that a Russian invasion of Ukraine has started.
Canada joined the United States, United Kingdom, Germany and the European Union in announcing a first tranche of economic sanctions on Russia Tuesday after Moscow recognized two separatist regions in eastern Ukraine and Russian troops rolled into the area.
Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly echoed U.S. President Joe Biden’s warning to Russia that more sanctions were on the cards if Russian President Vladimir Putin proceeded further to invade Ukraine. This comes even though Russia, which has amassed an estimated 150,000 troops on three sides of Ukraine, has repeatedly denied it plans to invade its neighbour.
Experts say the new economic measures, which primarily target Russian parliamentarians, individuals and banks, are not likely to impact the situation on the ground.
“I think sanctions, which are just announced by Joe Biden and by other Western governments, would not have a major effect on decisions by Russian President Vladimir Putin in case of his policies towards Ukraine,” said Ivan Katchanovski, an expert on Ukraine and a professor at the School of Political Studies at the University of Ottawa.
“Sanctions would not be a decisive factor for Putin,” he told Global News. This is because in Putin’s mind, Ukraine is much more important for Russia than any economic sanctions, Katchanovski said.
Andres Kasekamp, a professor of history at the University of Toronto and an expert on eastern European security matters, said the sanctions come as no surprise to Putin, who would’ve already factored them in when recognizing the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk.
And based on past experiences — when Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 and annexed Crimea in 2014 — the sanctions from the West “haven’t really been very biting,” Kasekamp said.
“In Putin’s way of thinking, if there is an opportunity and there’s no resolve to stop him, he’ll take that chance. But when he discovers that there is serious pushback, then he will pause.”
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The Russian president has justified his decision to recognize Donetsk and Luhansk as an effort to “maintain peace,” as he blamed NATO for the current crisis and called the U.S.-led alliance an existential threat to Russia during a pre-recorded televised speech Monday.
The West has widely condemned the move, with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau calling it “a flagrant disregard for the independence of a sovereign nation” and “a serious threat to security and stability in the region.”
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As tensions mount, Ukraine declared a state of emergency on Wednesday and told its citizens in Russia to flee, while Moscow began evacuating its Kyiv embassy.
Putin on Thursday ordered “a special military operation” in the Donbass region of Ukraine, telling fighters there to lay down their arms and surrender.
Putin warned other countries that any attempt to interfere with the Russian action would lead to “consequences they have never seen.”
What are the new sanctions?
The first round of sanctions from Canada will ban Canadians from all financial dealings with the breakaway Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk.
The sanctions will also target members of the Russian parliament who voted for the decision to recognize the separatist regions, as well as ban Canadians from engaging in purchases of Russian sovereign debt.
U.S. sanctions target Russian elites and two state-owned banks, excluding them from the U.S. banking system, banning them from trading with Americans, and freezing their U.S. assets. They also seek to deny the Russian government access to Western financing.
Furthermore, Washington is imposing sanctions on the company in charge of building Russia’s Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline by targeting the firm and its corporate officers.
Germany on Tuesday froze approvals for the pipeline, which has been built but was not yet in operation, amid concerns it could allow Moscow to weaponize energy supplies to Europe.
Kasekamp said of all the measures announced, Germany’s decision was the “most significant” because the flow of gas and oil to Europe is one of the main sources of income which props up the Russian regime, making Europeans somewhat dependent on Russia.
Meanwhile, the U.K. is targeting three billionaires with close links to Putin, and five Russian banks including Promsvyazbank, Russia’s military bank.
As for the European Union, it has agreed to blacklist banks involved in financing separatists in eastern Ukraine and to cut the Russian government out of its debt markets.
Russia Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov brushed off the threat of sanctions on Tuesday.
“Our European, American, British colleagues will not stop and will not calm down until they have exhausted all their possibilities for the so-called punishment of Russia,” he said.
Aurel Braun, professor of international relations and political science at the University of Toronto, said the proposed sanctions are not the type that would cripple the Russian economy and deter Putin.
He questioned why the West was holding back on the most stringent sanctions.
“How many more invasions do you need before you do the thing that is necessary to deter Russia?” he asked.
Dominique Arel, chair of Ukrainian Studies at the University of Ottawa, said the sanctions are not likely to force any regime change because the Russian parliament is not independent, nor are elections and the media free in the country.
“Even if the sanctions were having really a very punishing effect and they will have cumulatively … there is no mechanism left in Russia to basically influence decision-making, let alone remove the leader.”
What could deter Russia?
Both the U.S. and Canada have also decided to send hundreds of additional troops to the Baltic states to bolster the NATO military alliance in eastern Europe.
Kasekamp said sending more troops can serve as a deterrent — as, much to Putin’s ire, his own aggressive actions are resulting in NATO strengthening its presence in member states adjacent to Russia and increasing its popularity among Ukrainians as well.
Supplying Ukraine with weapons and training to make it more resilient to Russian pressure is another policy that can deter Russia, he said.
Russia says it wants Western guarantees that NATO won’t allow Ukraine and other former Soviet countries to join as members. Moscow has also demanded the alliance halt weapons deployments to Ukraine and roll back its forces from Eastern Europe — demands flatly rejected by the West.
Going forward, experts say Moscow could retaliate in response to the Western pressure by expanding its military presence in the separatist regions and possibly annex Luhansk and Donetsk.
“This would mean a possibility of a conflict between Russia and Ukraine becoming an armed conflict or even a war,” said Katchanovski.
— with files from Reuters and The Associated Press
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