We’re closing in on the one-month countdown to the start of summer and we’re hoping for some good news on the weather front.
A first glance at global patterns looks like summer will bring “average” weather back to Southern Alberta.
El Nino/La Nina has been in a neutral phase and is expected to remain that way through to August, meaning neither pattern will dominate and Western Canada can expect average conditions. There are several other global pressure patterns that influence seasonal weather trends here in Alberta but they all appear to be trending toward neutral phases as well — a good sign for average.
So what does “average” mean for the Calgary region over the next several months? Some of our wettest months and some of our warmest months. Here’s a summer month by month breakdown of average conditions for Calgary:
June
June is Calgary’s wettest month with an average 94.0 mm of precipitation. Typically, most of that falls as rain but snow can’t be ruled out in June (or any month for that matter). The average daily low temperature is 7.5 C while the average daily high temperature is 19.8 C. June is definitely the month when temperatures begin to warm consistently.
July
The month of July in Calgary is the second wettest month of the year but it’s also the start of a downturn toward the drier months ahead. On average, 65.5 mm precipitation falls in July. The average daily low temperature is 9.8 C and the average daily high temperature is 23.2 C, making July the warmest average month of the year in Calgary.
August
The month of August is still warm but trends toward drier conditions. On average, 57.0 mm of precipitation falls in the Calgary area. The average daily low temperature is 8.8 C while the average daily high temperature is 22.8 C.
September
The downward trend in the precipitation averages continues in September, though the month isn’t necessarily dry. On average, 45.1 mm of precipitation falls during the transition month to autumn. The average daily low temperature is 4.1 C while the average daily high temperature is 17.8 C.
The following graph, courtesy of Environment Canada, summarizes 1981-2010 climate normals for the weather station at Calgary International airport:
Expect summer weather to follow this data closely, based on forecasts for Northern Hemisphere pressure patterns remaining generally neutral.