Canpotex casts critical eye at deal between India, Belarusian Potash Company

The overseas marketing arm of Saskatchewan’s two largest potash producers takes a critical view of a deal between India and the Belarusian Potash Company (BPC).

Canpotex Ltd., which is co-owned by Mosaic Co. and Nutrien Ltd., says it won’t follow the lead of a potash deal between India and Belarus that falls “significantly below current market levels.”

Nutrien is backing Canpotex’s move to avoid following those prices in potential sales to India, according to a Monday news release.

BPC’s agreement with India “was settled at the highest government level with limited commercial involvement,” said Ken Seitz, the head of Nutrien’s potash operations, all of which are in Saskatchewan.

The deal with India is for $247 per tonne, which is $17 above the 2020 price of $230 per tonne, Scotiabank analyst Ben Isaacson wrote in a Friday note. Suppliers were seeking a price increase of $40 to $50, according to the note.

Nutrien potash sales to North America are filled through April, on top of offshore sales with Canpotex, a Monday news release said. Significantly, none of those offshore commitments includes shipments to India or China, it added.

“This contract price in no way reflects the market-based pricing in the current key offshore potash markets which, like other fertilizers, is being supported by strong global crop fundamentals,” Seitz said in a prepared statement.

As a commodity, potash prices can range widely, noted University of Saskatchewan professor Brooke Dobni, who studies the industry. Companies like Nutrien may try to manage supply to account for lower prices, he said.

If there are lower prices, “there’s going to be less profits coming in for people in Saskatchewan,” he said.

Potash suppliers K+S and Uralkali also issued press releases stating they wouldn’t follow those prices, Isaacson said. Releasing those statements makes it unlikely that suppliers like Nutrien would “then go and accept a price increase of a few dollars more,” he said in a Monday note, but added “it’s not a slam dunk case.”

He went on to say that there’s little harm in “the producers aggressively posturing in a supplier’s market, where most producers are sold out over the next couple of months.”

However, any pushback from suppliers may be blunted, with the spot price in Southeast Asia in the mid-$240s, he said. China has only paid more than that target once in the past decade _ and it was higher by $5, he noted.

“(Despite) the gamesmanship,” BMO analyst Joel Jackson wrote in a Monday note, he expects the companies to eventually settle at the Indian price.

“We’ve seen this movie before in which major suppliers issue public statements indicating a contract price settlement from a competitor is too low, though the history is against the suppliers.”

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