Rona Ambrose most favoured by Canadians to be next Tory leader, survey suggests

Former interim Conservative leader Rona Ambrose is the most “appealing” choice to head the federal party, according to a survey released Tuesday.

The poll, conducted by Angus Reid Institute, asked respondents to pick their top choices from among a list of high-profile Conservatives in the country.

The survey found that Ambrose — who previously announced her departure from federal politics — and former Conservative minister Peter MacKay were the top choices.

The list also included: Caroline Mulroney, Michelle Rempel, Lisa Raitt, Pierre Poilievre, Kevin O’Leary, Jason Kenney, Brad Wall, Michael Chong and Bernard Lord.

About 27 per cent of respondents chose Ambrose, while 21 per cent opted for MacKay.

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Core Conservatives were also more likely to favour Ambrose, at 34 per cent, over MacKay, at 19 per cent. Among “possible Conservatives,” the support was split 29 per cent and 26 per cent, favouring Ambrose. Unlikely Conservatives also weighed in and were more likely to support Ambrose at 25 per cent — MacKay garnered 21 per cent of support.

Regionally, Ambrose was more popular in Conservative stronghold provinces such as Alberta and Saskatchewan, garnering 48 per cent and 35 per cent of support, respectively, in the provinces.

In provinces where Conservatives have less support, such as Ontario, MacKay and Ambrose saw similar results (25 per cent and 28 per cent).

While it’s unclear who will head the party after Andrew Scheer, they will have a big task on their hands. The survey also found that 49 per cent of Canadians feel the federal party is “on the wrong track” — 30 per cent thought the opposite.

Peter Graefe, an associate professor of political science at McMaster University, told Global News that both Ambrose and MacKay have the potential to actually become leaders of the party, however, the survey left out some notable names, such as former minister Erin O’Toole.

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Graefe added that it’s not too uncommon for former ministers and members of Parliament to reappear during a leadership race.

“When one of these roles comes open, people naturally look to people of experience,” he said.

A majority of all respondents, at 60 per cent, said Tories need to take climate change more seriously.

More than half, at 57 per cent, also said the party needs to be more progressive about social issues. The issue was a point of controversy for Scheer, who dodged questions throughout the federal election campaign and afterwards about his personal stance on same-sex marriage and abortion.

Ambrose recently shared on social media that she’s proud to have been the first Conservative leader to march in a Pride parade. She said it’s time to show support for all families.

Lydia Miljan, an associate professor of political science at the University of Windsor, told Global News that this is something the party will likely have to work on to grow support.

“If they want to build their support in urban centres and among youth and women, they need to focus on fiscal issues and deal with questions on same-sex marriage, abortion rights in a much more frank and open way than Andrew Scheer was able to do,” she said.

Next steps for Tory leadership race

While there has been speculation over whether high-profile Tories, such as Ambrose and MacKay, will take part in the leadership race, neither has confirmed participation.

Miljan noted that is the case for many of the names circulating — they have not actually expressed explicit interest themselves.

“A lot of the people whose names are being bandied about are people who’ve already said they’re not interested in the job,” Miljan said. “But, you know, those things could change.”

Amid this speculation, the Conservative Party of Canada will hold a leadership race that will extend to the next several months.

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There is potential for the leader to be selected in April 2020, when the party was already slated for a leadership review. However, an exact date has not been confirmed.

Graefe predicted that there would be more development on the leadership race in the new year so it’s not overshadowed by the holidays.

“The other reason why people haven’t declared yet is because the rules haven’t been determined,” he explained, adding that deadlines, rules for donations and other issues are still unclear.

This Angus Reid Institute survey was completed online, between Dec. 9 to 11, by a representative randomized sample of 4,516 Canadian adults who are members of the Angus Reid Forum. This survey carries a margin of error of plus or minus one percentage point 19 times out of 20.  

— With files from The Canadian Press