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Bill Kelly: The odds of a fall federal election are slim

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his four-year-old son Hadrien meet with seniors at the Milton Community Hall in North Milton, P.E.I. on Aug. 13, 2018. Andrew Vaughan/ The Canadian Press

There’s a rumour floating around Ottawa these days that the Trudeau government is seriously considering pulling the plug on Parliament and calling a snap election for the fall.

While anything is possible in the wacky world of politics, it seems highly unlikely that this government would risk going to the polls at this time.

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Recent polling shows the Liberals just a couple of percentage points ahead of the Conservatives, so there’s no great comfort level there, but more importantly, the government needs to stack up a few more political victories.

In fact, there are two major outstanding issues that need to get wrapped up, namely, a new NAFTA deal and some kind of progress on the sticky issue of pipelines in British Columbia.

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What’s more likely to happen is that the prime minister will prorogue Parliament and begin a new session with a throne speech.

Proroguing is a tool used by past prime ministers, from Stephen  Harper to Jean Chretien and it’s akin to hitting the refresh button for the government.

Like all political gambits, sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t.

Proroguing helped Harper stave off the enemies at the gate a couple of times; when Kathleen Wynne tried it this year, it only delayed the inevitable.

It’s risky, but with so many contentious issues to deal with, going all in with a federal election at this point just doesn’t make political sense.

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Bill Kelly is the host of the Bill Kelly Show on Global News Radio 900 CHML

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