Bill Kelly: The 2018 Ontario election will be won or lost in the GTA

In just a couple of days, we’ll experience a change of seasons in Ontario when we transition from winter into election season.

As sure as grass will turn green and weeds will sprout, so too, will election lawn signs begin to dot our neighbourhood landscapes.

The party leaders will criss-cross the province in their campaign buses, because every vote counts, but the reality is, this election will be won or lost in the Greater Toronto Area.

Kathleen Wynne’s surprise majority government victory in 2014 was due, in large part, to Liberal success in the GTA.

There are 40 seats in Toronto and surrounding municipalities and 34 of them belong to the Liberals.

Cities like Toronto and Mississauga, Brampton and Hamilton are skittish about electing Tories because they still bear the scars of downloading costs and market value assessment of their homes, two of the more painful memories of the Mike Harris era.

If the Tories want to break that cycle, they’d better spend less time talking about wind turbines and the sex-ed curriculum and spend more time on city issues, like public transit, affordable housing and even social service costs, all issues that conservatives have, for the most part, ignored.

It’s simple math really: 40 per cent of the seats in the legislature belong to the GTA, and the party that wins the GTA will win the election.