Ontario’s Progressive Conservatives have already started voting to select the new leader of their party, but the result is anything but a foregone conclusion.
Many observers are suggesting that it’s really a two-person race between Christine Elliott and Doug Ford, but is it really?
In last spring’s federal Conservative leadership race, it was supposed to be Maxime Bernier and Kevin O’Leary duking it out, but Andrew Scheer came out the winner.
It goes to show us that public opinion polls don’t count; what really matters is who shows up to vote.
Despite all the bragging about all the new party members that have been signed up lately, it’s likely that less than half of them will actually vote this week.
Think about that: half of the people who expressed their preference for one candidate or another, probably won’t even vote.
Furthermore, since the vote will likely go to a second or possibly even a third ballot, who are the voters’ second and third choices?
It was those second- and third-choice ballots that gave Scheer enough support to eventually win last summer.
These are the kinds of questions that haunt all of the candidates as they head to the final tally this Saturday.
It just proves that the only sure thing in politics is that there is no sure thing.
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