You might have already guessed, but now it is official — the chances of major flooding in Manitoba this spring are slim.
Ron Schuler, Manitoba’s infrastructure minister, issued the first spring flood outlook for 2018 on Feb. 23 from the Hydrologic Forecast Centre on Broadway Avenue.
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“I’m happy to announce that there is reason for cautious optimism about the spring flood season,” Schuler said.
“If current conditions continue, the threat of widespread or major spring flooding is low in most areas of the province.”
That means minimal risk of floods for southern Manitoba as well as the southern lakes and the northern basins including the Pas.
“We’ve been saying since December that the combination of drier soil conditions in the fall and below average precipitation has, at this time, resulted in a low risk of major flooding in southern Manitoba.”
VIEW: the government of Manitoba precipitation map showing below average rain or snow since November
The minister warned that a major weather event or significant snow or rain fall in the weeks ahead, could change things. And there is another catch.
Schuler said a potential red flag in the flood forecast is thick ice.
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Schuler advised that the very cold winter and minimal snow fall has led to river ice that is thicker than usual. Thicker ice, which takes longer to melt and break up, could lead to ice jams which in turn could cause flash floods.
However, he said work to prevent ice jams has already begun on the north Red River.
“More than two kilometres of ice has already been cut and broken. Crews are reporting the ice is up to a meter thick,” noting that’s up to 25 centimetres thicker than the same time last year.
Even so, Schuler expects Manitoban’s will be pleased with the flood forecast.
“It’s good news, it is average to below average chance of flooding come spring,” Schuler said.
The next flood forecast will be issued near the end of March.