Ever since he was appointed as special counsel, there have been questions about how long Robert Mueller will be allowed to stay on the job.
To this day, the threat of being fired by President Trump looms over Mueller at every turn, as he and his investigators dutifully go about their work investigating alleged ties between the Trump campaign and Russia, and perhaps more.
That’s why Thursday’s New York Times report that Trump ordered Mueller’s firing in June 2017 was not so much surprising, as it was confirmation of worst fears.
WATCH: Donald Trump ordered Special Counsel Robert Mueller to be fired last June: report
The president, it seems, has no concern about the appearance of trying to obstruct justice that would come with firing the person already investigating him for obstructing justice (over the firing of FBI Director James Comey).
As the report points out, Trump backed down from firing Mueller after Chief White House Counsel Don McGhan threatened to resign in protest.
But all these months later, the story has leaked and the timing is curious, to say the least.
On Wednesday, President Trump said he would talk to Mueller under oath. “There has been no collusion whatsoever. There is no obstruction whatsoever. And I am looking forward to it,” he said.
WATCH: Trump says he’s ‘looking forward’ to meeting with Robert Mueller
But privately, there’s little for the White House to be so confident about.
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Mueller’s team has secured plea deals with two Trump associates who are now co-operating witnesses with the investigation, while we’ve learned that everyone from Jeff Sessions to James Comey has been interviewed as part of the probe.
Georgetown Law professor Michael Seidman offered a theory as to why the Mueller story is surfacing all these months later.
“Probably the reason this leaked is because people in the White House wanted to give the president some taste of what the public reaction would be if he fired Mueller to discourage him from doing that,” Seidman explained.
That reaction is almost universally negative, as we learned when rumours of Mueller’s ouster first surfaced last summer.
At the time, Trump confidante Chris Ruddy told PBS, “I think he’s weighing that option,” prompting Trump-friendly Republican Senator Lindsay Graham to issue a warning: “Any effort to go after Mueller could be the beginning of the end of the Trump presidency,” he said at the time.
In fact, many Republicans suggested firing Mueller would cross some sort of red line that would bring about catastrophic consequences for the president.
WATCH: Trump describes New York Times report that he ordered Mueller fired as ‘fake news’
But in Seidman’s view, there’s little reason to think that Mueller is any safer today. He believes that President Trump might still try to fire him in the near future.
“Mueller has stuff on the administration that is likely to be very damaging,” he explained. “I think he’s going to feel he has to feel one way or another he has to get rid of him. That’s coming down the pike and when it happens it will be a constitutional crisis.”
That constitutional crisis would force Congress to explore messy topics like whether or not a president can actually be indicted, or whether they should trigger articles of impeachment.
Experts have argued, Trump has slightly less nuclear options at his disposal too.
He could fire Jeff Sessions, appoint a new attorney general who hasn’t recused himself from the Russia probe, and have that new attorney general impose strict limits on Mueller’s authority.
Trump could also issue blanket pardons to try and obstruct the investigation.
“Whichever way he does it, at that point, Congress would have to decide if they’ll put up with it. And that’s where the crisis comes,” said Seidman.
News that Trump has already tried to fire the special counsel makes each of those scenarios more likely, forcing Republicans in Congress to have a conversation they’ve tried to avoid: how to protect the special counsel.
WATCH: U.S. Senator says legislation should exist to protect special counsels, not just Mueller
There are currently two pieces of legislation in Congress to protect Mueller from being fired by the president. Until now, they’ve had only tepid support and no real chance of undergoing serious consideration.
But things change quickly in Donald Trump’s Washington.
Suddenly, lawmakers have gone from giving Trump the benefit of the doubt, to wondering if they need to take real steps to avoid a messy legal battle with the president.
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