The surprise result of the Alabama Senate election this week added credence to the fact that you just can’t predict elections anymore.
Democrat Doug Jones was trailing in the polls, but ended up beating Roy Moore.
Last year, Hillary Clinton was ahead in just about every poll in the presidential election and we know how that turned out.
That’s why we need to be wary of the fluctuating polling numbers in the upcoming Ontario election.
Depending on who you talk to, the Liberals and the Progressive Conservatives (PCs) are neck-and-neck, or Patrick Brown’s party is headed for a massive majority.
Part of the problem is that most polling is done on a province-wide basis but many elections are determined by regional voting.
Get daily National news
Rural voters tend to support the PCs and urban voters in Ontario’s larger cities tend to swing to the Liberals.
That’s why the Wynne government has been doling out cash for public transit and LRT systems in Ottawa, Hamilton and the GTA.
In fact, the Liberal success in the last couple of elections has been based on their strong showing in the 905 and 416 area codes.
I predict that whoever dominates in those two area codes will likely form the next government.
But then you know how reliable political predictions are these days.
Bill Kelly is the host of the Bill Kelly Show on Global News Radio 900 CHML.
Comments
Want to discuss? Please read our Commenting Policy first.