We’ve been spoiled with warm temperature for most of November. Edmonton had highs near +20°C to start the month, finishing November over five degrees above the 30-year average. However, the tables are about to turn. With meteorological winter beginning Dec. 1, it will feel much more like the new season after the weekend.
With all long-range models, especially at this time of year, there is variance. However, more than one forecast model has held this cool down in its runs all week.
Edmonton will see another warm spell, which should last Thursday, Friday and Saturday. However, that comes as the double-edged sword. The warm and moist air moving in may offer up some freezing rain in parts of central Alberta, including Edmonton, Friday evening. Keep that in mind for weekend travel plans.
Now for even more bad news.
The upper ridge in the jet stream will slowly start to collapse as a trough takes over. Once we’re on the bad side of that jet stream, there will be nothing stopping a cold, dry and dense Arctic air mass from moving in.
This will likely happen Sunday evening. Monday will be “the day.” Edmonton will likely start the day with a fairly seasonal morning low near -10°C but the temperatures will fall throughout the day, finishing closer to -20°C.
Tuesday and Wednesday will be even colder as the core of this Arctic high gets nice and cozy in the heart of central Alberta. We could be dealing with near -30°C morning lows and highs hovering close to -20°C.
Enjoy the warm end to the week, as next week’s forecast will likely hold up. We always seem to get spoiled through the winter months with at least a few Pacific outbreaks to ease the winter woes.
Looking at the latest model guidance, those days will be few and far between for the foreseeable future.