National polls continue to show the U.S. Presidential Election to be a virtual tie, leading many pundits and analysts to brand the result “too close to call.”
However, a number of different sites that analyze multiple state polls are all projecting that Barack Obama will have more than the 270 Electoral College votes necessary to win the race.
This approach is not without controversy and by Wednesday we should know who is right.
Here’s a round-up of how some of the most popular polling sites are currently projecting the outcome:
Nate Silver’s New York Times Five Thirty Eight Blog:
Electoral College:
Obama: 307.2
Romney: 230.8
Popular Vote:
Obama: 50.6 per cent
Romney: 48.5 per cent
Silver predicts that Obama has an 86.3 per cent chance of winning.
A lightning rod for controversy, Silver’s complex, propriety prediction model has been widely criticized and defended.
Another electoral prediction model, the Princeton Election Consortium, also sees an Obama victory in the cards. They’re even more confident stating that Obama’s probability of re-election is as high as 99.9 per cent.
Electoral College:
Obama: 310
Romney: 228
Colleyrankings.com, yet another Electoral College prediction model shows the following:
Obama: 291
Romney: 234
Toss-up: 13
Other models predicting an Obama victory include the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, Desart and Holbrook Election forecast, and conservative analyst Scott Elliot.
Turning to media sites, RealClearPolitics.com which simply averages a large number of polls from a wide variety of sources shows the following “no toss up” scenario:
Electoral College:
Obama: 303
Romney: 235
But they see the overall race as a statistical tie:
Popular Vote:
Obama: 48.8 per cent
Romney: 48.1 per cent
The Huffington Post’s Pollster has the race as follows:
Electoral College:
Obama: 277
Romney: 191
Tossup: 70
And finally, Talkingpointsmemo.com’s PollTracker (http://core.talkingpointsmemo.com/election/scoreboard) has the following result:
Electoral College:
Obama: 290
Romney: 191
Although they, too, have the national popular vote race much closer:
Obama: 48.9 per cent
Romney: 47.9 per cent
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