In the wake of the Fort McMurray wildfires, and in light of the 2011 fire that burned through a third of Slave Lake, Alta., researchers are looking at ways they can notify fire crews in advance, potentially saving lives and communities.
Researchers at the University of Calgary are looking at a different way to predict wildfires than what’s currently used.
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Dr. Quazi Hassan has used free NASA satellite images to track weather, precipitation and dryness.
“Then use the data in order to forecast the fire danger conditions for the next 24 hours, as well for the next eight days,” he said.
That timing is the difference, Hassan said.
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Currently, most provinces use dozens of weather stations to predict fires. They are often spread across large areas, with few ways to get updated conditions and long-term predictions.
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Between 2009 and 2011, they tracked every major fire in Alberta and found that 77 per cent of them showed signs they would flare up at least a week prior than they did, including the fire in Slave Lake.
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“The relevant agencies can mobilize the resources in order to fight these fires in order to save the lives and the resources on the ground,” Hassan told Global News.
The team hasn’t analyzed the 2016 Fort McMurray fire, but new funding just approved for phase two of the project could make that possible.
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Hassan said if they had more resources, the work to assess fire risk could be done in every province across Canada.
The province of Alberta welcomes the information, but Wildfire Information Officer Travis Fairweather said crews were as ready as they could be for the Fort McMurray fire.
“It was detected by one of our wildfire and we had tankers on it right away,” Fairweather said.
“The conditions out there were so hot and dry, once that fire started, there wasn’t a lot we could do about it.”
Despite some warning, officials say Mother Nature is also one of the biggest variables.
Global Calgary meteorologist Jordan Witzel says the weather can change a lot in 24 hours.
“Not only then do we have the weather that a meteorologist would forecast, but the influence of what the immediate fire would have on that (weather).”
The Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada funding totals $205,000 over a decade. Hassan said the strategy isn’t likely to prevent a fire, but it may help reduce how much damage one can cause.
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