The winter of 2011-2012 has been anything but eventful so far. A lack of cold air and a general lack of major winter storms across Canada has many meteorologists (myself included) twiddling their thumbs or even doing crossword puzzles to keep entertained. So should we give up hope and forget about winter? Not so fast…
Europe started off warm and dry but the lack of winter on that side of the pond flipped on a dime. Arctic air flooded in for a month and frequent snow storms buried some cities under feet of snow earlier in February. Rome for example, barely sees anything more than a few flakes of snow in an average winter but this year they were hit with 2 significant snows that even caused the closure of the coliseum and many other tourist attractions. The death toll from the cold alone rose to almost 500 people across Europe.
Here in Toronto, we are still waiting for our first significant snow. The snow that has fallen melted as quickly as it fell. This has led many to question their recent snow removal, winter tire and ski season pass purchases. So is this really a winter for the record books? Let’s take a look at the facts….
I’ve charted the seasonal snowfall totals dating back to 1960 from Pearson Airport. This season’s 32.8cm as of February 22nd is almost 20cm lower than any season in the past 51 years. You don’t have to go back very far to see the next least snowy year. The winter of 2009-2010 only saw 52.4cm of snow but before you jump out and blame Global Warming take a look at the big picture. Snowfall this past decade actually averaged almost 5cm above average but it was composed of several extreme years.
I guess it’s time to answer the question. Will this seasons lack of snowfall set a Record? The answer is most likely NO. The storm track looks very active through early March with several significant storms bringing rain and likely snow to Toronto and all of southern Ontario. There will also be plenty of cold air available up in northern Canada. On average 29cm of snow falls between the 22nd of February and the end of the season in Toronto. There is reason to believe that after the slow start to winter, we will make up for lost time…I mean snow.
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