WATCH ABOVE: A new poll from Mainstreet Technologies suggests the provincial election is becoming a three-way race.
EDMONTON – A new poll suggests that the Wildrose and PCs are nearly neck and neck in the early days of the provincial election race, and the Alberta NDP is surging ahead to create a three-way race. (Full poll results can be viewed below.)
Mainstreet Technologies polled 3,270 Albertans via Interactive Voice Response automated telephone survey on Tuesday, April 7th, when the writ was dropped.
“The first few days of this campaign are showing signs of a tremendously competitive race,” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Technologies. “Wildrose is holding steady but the sudden surge of new support for the NDP in both Edmonton and across Alberta is the real story.”
When combining the results of both decided and undecided voters across the province, the poll found a tight race with the Wildrose Party maintaining support at 24 per cent, the Progressive Conservatives dropping to 21 per cent and the NDP close behind at 20 per cent.
However, not everyone believes the race is as tight as the poll suggests.
Chair of Policy Studies at Mount Royal University Duane Bratt says he doesn’t support the results.
“I think that it’s really people going ‘I’m really upset with the government, who can I turn to?’ – and I think that’s why they’re turning to the Wildrose,” adds Bratt.
“Wildrose may have capacity in certain ridings across the province, but province wide? No. No they don’t. It’s a huge edge that the PC’s have.”
WATCH: Political Analyst Duane Bratt joins Global Calgary with details on a new Mainstreet Technologies poll that shows a potentially tight election race in Alberta
Bratt says the despite following Alberta politics very closely, he hadn’t heard of Mainstreet Technologies until their previous poll in March.
“The numbers I think I’m skeptical about, and the fact that Prentice is on the verge of losing I’m very skeptical about.”
Putting those issues aside, Bratt still believes there is a “grain of truth” contained within the latest poll.
“It’s being replicated by other polls using different methodologies that show some vulnerability amongst the PC’s.”
According to the poll, the PCs still maintain a slim lead in Calgary with 26 per cent support compared to the Wildrose party’s 24 per cent.
READ MORE: Alberta New Democrats looking for breakthrough in PC fortress of Calgary
While Bratt says he does see a surge in NDP support in the southern Alberta city, it’s more evident in Edmonton and Lethbridge.
“I think the NDP has capacity in the city of Edmonton,” said Bratt.
In Edmonton, where the NDP holds four seats, the poll shows the party has 40 per cent support. The poll also found Alberta Liberal and Alberta Party support slipped to 9 per cent and 2 per cent, respectively.
Outside Alberta’s two major cities, the poll shows the Wildrose holding the most support with 29 per cent, followed by the PCs at 20 per cent. Twenty five per cent said they had not decided who they were voting for.
Poll results from the 2012 election also proclaimed a tight race between the PCs and Wildrose. Poll after poll and ensuing media analysis suggested then-leader Danielle Smith and her Wildrose party were within striking distance of a majority. But at the end of election night the PCs not only held on to power, but delivered a stunning majority mandate.
The Mainstreet Technologies poll carries an overall margin of error of +/- 1.78%, 19/20. Regional Margins of Error: Edmonton +/- 2.94; Calgary +/- 3.07; Rest of Alberta +/- 2.9.
BELOW: Full poll results
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