TORONTO – John Tory enjoys a significant lead over Doug Ford, according to an Ipsos Reid poll conducted exclusively for Global News.
And with just three days left until election day, there’s little chance either Ford or Olivia Chow can come out on top, John Wright, senior vice president of Ipsos Reid said in an interview Friday.
“He has no chance of catching John Tory. The difference is such that if turnout is regular, John Tory may likely win by a bigger spread,” Wright said.
Ipsos Reid polled 1,201 people between October 21 and 24 (801 online and 400 by phone). Tory leads with 42 per cent support among Torontonians. Ford is in a distant second with 31 per cent support and Chow is close behind him at 25 per cent, according to the poll.
Though Ford is closer to Tory than in the last Ipsos Reid poll on September 27, Wright said Ford won’t catch Tory because his supporters are far less likely to vote.
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Ford’s supporters are typically young, low-income, less-educated renters living in Toronto – they are statistically less likely to vote than the older, higher-income homeowners that are backing Tory.
“What will happen is, while there may be people who decide generally that they would vote for Doug Ford, those who show up at the ballot box are going to be less,” Wright said.
If voter turnout mimics the 2010 election, during which only 53.2 per cent of eligible voters bothered to do so, Ipsos Reid said Tory could in fact get 51 per cent of the vote compared to Ford’s 25 per cent.
Despite the numbers, the candidates aren’t taking the weekend off.
All three candidates say they are in a sprint to the finish: Tory has planned to visit all 44 wards in the city over the 72 hours and Ford and Chow are also expected to be urging their supporters to vote.
Tory leads in every region of the city except for Scarborough where Ford enjoys a small lead with 41 per cent to Tory’s 39 per cent support.
In Etobicoke, Ford’s home territory, Tory enjoys a one point lead with 39 per cent support.
The Ipsos Reid poll was conducted between October 21 and October 24 and surveyed 1,201 Torontonians online and over the telephone. The poll is considered reliable within +/- 3.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.