TORONTO – Do political endorsements move the electoral needle in the late stages of a campaign?
Candidates obviously seem to think so: Why else would John Tory and Olivia Chow post a polished list of supporters and city builders on their campaign sites? Why else would they trot many of them out in front of the media?
Tory did so Monday morning, four weeks to the day before voters cast their ballots. He welcomed the support of Liberal MPP David Zimmer.
Olivia Chow staged a similar photo op earlier in September when she met the media in the presence of a handful of city councillors and candidates who support her mayoralty bid.
But do they matter?
Darrell Bricker is Ipsos CEO of Public Affairs. The pollster says there’s little evidence to suggest endorsements make any real difference in the outcome of an election. At best, there’s a sense of affirmation for voters who’ve already decided how they intend to cast a ballot.
“I think it probably makes people feel comfortable with their choices. So seeing a lot of people lined up behind somebody says ‘You’re not alone,’” he said.
But there are endorsements that can be risky. Take Mayor Ford’s photo op with former heavy weight boxing champion Mike Tyson. The image of a mayor being endorsed by a convicted rapist posed problems enough but Ford torqued the tension to new levels when he told reporters: “We’re cut from the same cloth.”
Then there are the media endorsements we typically see in print media and rarely, if ever, in the broadcast media.
Michael Hollett is the publisher and co-founder of NOW Magazine and will never be mistaken for a Ford supporter. But he did offer up a bit of an editorial finger wagging and tongue lashing for Olivia Chow in this week’s edition. He essentially took issue with Chow’s campaign posture, demanding that she assert herself on the hustings.
“Show us the woman you are now: funny, feisty and dripping with attitude, ideas and energy. Forget the polish. Go for the passion, Olivia,” Hollett wrote.
He admits his letter is as much about affecting votes as it is about pushing his candidate back into line.
Hollett feels it’s his paper’s place to strongly endorse candidates with a view to setting the agenda.
But editorial board blessings or lining up a cast of supporters offering niceties and kudos for the chosen candidate simply flies in the face of the social media era we’re living in.
As one woman put it so succinctly on Bloor Street in downtown Toronto, “I have a very strong opinion of who I’m going to be voting for so I wouldn’t let someone else’s opinion sway that.”
Now, it’s worth noting that George Smitherman boasted a long list of high profile endorsement in the 2010 campaign, including the editorial weight of the Globe and Mail, the Toronto Star and NOW Magazine. Rob Ford had the National Post and The Toronto Sun but his biggest endorsement came from Ford Nation.
The vote wasn’t even close.
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