John Tory continues to lead over rivals: Poll

Watch above: Why a lead in the polls doesn’t always translate to victory on election night. Mark Carcasole reports. 

TORONTO – Mayoral candidate John Tory remains the front-runner in an election race that has his rivals in distant second and third place, according to a new poll.

A Forum Research poll released Monday by the Toronto Star and Citytv suggests Tory has a seven-point lead over Doug Ford, the former with 38 per cent support versus 31 per cent, and Olivia Chow in third with 25 per cent.

Tory’s lead is similar to Forum results conducted the day Ford replaced his ailing brother Rob in the mayoral race following his tumour diagnosis.

The spread remained at seven-points but with Tory at 41 per cent support and Ford at 34 per cent.

Meanwhile, another poll released on Monday also showed Tory in top spot with just over a month left until voting day.

A Nanos Research poll released Monday by CTV and The Globe and Mail suggests that, if the election were held that day, John Tory would win the support of 49 per cent of decided voters surveyed; Doug Ford would get 27 per cent of the vote and Olivia Chow, 24 per cent.

The same poll also revealed respondents had an overwhelmingly negative impression of Doug Ford as a candidate (51 per cent) compared to just 10 per cent for Tory and 24 per cent for Chow.

WATCH: Olivia Chow not worried about poll numbers; welcomes Doug Ford to debate

Transit and gridlock remains the most important issue (56 per cent), followed by the need for a new mayor (8 per cent), high taxes and fees (8 per cent) and the need for accountability (4 per cent).

But with six weeks left, are the numbers a precursor to election night or can things still change dramatically?

Charles Bird, a principle of Earnscliffe Strategy, suggests Torontonians have by and large made up their minds about who to vote for – but there’s always a chance things could change.

“If I’m correct about that, then we’ll likely see very little movement in the polls. At the same time, there’s always some thread that can be successfully pulled that can mean a frontrunners campaign can become unravelled,” Bird said.

And he suggested Tory, now the clear frontrunner, is well aware of that having lost the 2007 provincial election largely due to his policy to fund faith-based schools.

“All it takes is one silly comment or one aspect of your policy platform that turns out to be ill thought through,” he said.