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Latest Forum poll predicts a majority Liberal government

MONTREAL – With one week to go before the Quebec elections, the latest Forum poll shows the Quebec Liberal Party in the lead with 41 per cent.

The interactive telephone poll conducted on March 31, surveyed 854 Quebecers.

While support for Philippe Couillard’s Liberals has remained stable, Pauline Marois’ Parti Quebecois has been on a steady decline.

The PQ garnered only 29 per cent of respondents’ votes, down from 38 per cent in a similar poll conducted on March 5.

Francois Legault of Coalition Avenir Quebec, the clear winner of last week’s televised debate on March 27, saw his party’s standings soar to 19 per cent.

Forum PollsMarch 31March 19March 5
Quebec Liberal Party41%45%40%
Parti Quebecois29%32%38%
Coalition Avenir Quebec19%13%12%
Quebec Solidaire  7%
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At first glance, it’s quite clear from the Forum poll that the Liberals have a distinct advantage.

However, a closer look reveals a much closer race. Translated into the number of seats won, the poll predicts a slim two-seat majority for the Liberals.

Of 125 seats in the National Assembly, the Forum Poll projects that the Liberals would win 65 seats, while the PQ would take 51, the CAQ would capture 7, leaving 2 for Quebec Solidaire.

Watch: How are Quebec voters responding to the election campaign?

Of all the leaders, Francois Legault has the strongest approval ratings at 54 per cent, compared to 45 per cent for Couillard and 32 per cent for Marois.

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From this poll, it would seem that Legault’s surge in popularity after the last debate has eaten away at the support base of both the Liberals and the PQ.

Whether his new-found popularity will translate into more seats for the CAQ remains to be seen.

What seems more certain is that the CAQ ridings are the ones to watch, as these may indicate whether the Liberals win a majority government.

The poll was conducted by Forum Research with the results based on an interactive voice response telephone survey of 854 randomly selected Quebecers 18 years of age and older. The poll was conducted on March 31, 2014. According to Forum, results based on the total sample are considered accurate +/ 3%, 19 times out of 20. Subsample results will be less accurate. Margins of error for subsample (such as age, gender) results are available here.

Read The Forum Poll research in more detail below: 

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