Americans will head to the polls on Tuesday for the midterms, with U.S. President Donald Trump’s war in Iran and trade war with Canada looming large in the election cycle.
Many of the 33 out of 100 U.S. Senate seats are being fiercely contested between Democrats and Trump’s Republican Party.
The trade war with Canada has occupied a large part of the narrative this election cycle in the seven border states electing senators on Tuesday.
Michigan
The Wolverine State is seeing a heated election campaign between Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers.
El-Sayed, a Muslim, has been the subject of several Islamophobic and racists attacks, including from Trump who called the Democrat a “jihadist” and said he should have to use a metal detector to enter the U.S. Senate.
On his part, El-Sayed has kept a focus on affordability and the high price of gas from the Iran war. When asked about the attacks against his name and faith, El-Sayed turned the conversation towards the high cost of the trade war with Canada.
“My name is not the reason you can’t afford your gas or groceries or to go see a doctor. Their war in Iran is the reason why. Their insane tariffs on Canada is the reason why,” he told reporters last month.
“If you’re picking a fight with Canada, you’re the asshole,” he said.
Michigan and Ontario have deeply integrated auto and steel manufacturing supply chains, with Trump’s trade war causing economic pain on both sides of the border. Canada has become a sticking point in the Michigan Senate election, with even Rogers distancing himself from Trump’s trade policy.
“Canada is not our enemy,” Rogers said in a campaign ad, in which he called for an end to the trade war despite supporting it months earlier.
El-Sayed appears to have the lead, although polls diverge on how sizeable his lead is.
A Beacon Research and Shaw & Company poll conducted for Fox News in September found he had a slight one-point lead, and a Marist University poll found him ahead by a thin two-point margin.
However, more recent polls suggest he may have surged. A CNN/SSRS poll conducted between Oct. 20 and 27 giving him a seven-point lead, while the latest New York Times/Siena Poll released on Sunday put him ahead by 11 points.
The Democratic campaign in Michigan, though, has had its share of hiccups with Congresswoman Haley Stevens’s shock decision to endorse Rogers, who she once said was a “fraud” and a “rubber stamp” for Trump.
Stevens, who lost the Democratic primary to El-Sayed in August, broke with El-Sayed after asking him to disavow an ad from an outside group that was critical of American aid to Israel. El-Sayed said he had nothing to do with the ad.
Appearing at a campaign event with Rogers, Stevens said her endorsement was “about standing together against hate and the future of this state and this country.”
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The Democratic establishment rallied around El-Sayed, with Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer calling Stevens’s move a “despicable betrayal.”
Maine
During the Senate candidates’ debate last month, Republican incumbent Susan Collins and her Democratic challenger Troy Jackson sparred in a heated exchange over Canada.
“I was successful in getting road salt removed from the tariff list,” Collins said, referring to Trump’s decision to exempt certain Canadian goods from his sweeping 50 per cent tariffs.
“What about everything else? We can’t eat road salt,” Jackson hit back, arguing that Trump’s tariffs have not only hit Maine’s lumber and fishing industries, but also put a dent in the tourism sector with visits from Canadians taking a nosedive.
Collins, who has been the senator from Maine since she was first elected in January 1997, has distanced herself from the Trump administration’s trade policies.
In a letter to U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick in August, Collins warned that Trump’s trade war against Canada would mean “higher costs, risk, and uncertainty for Maine families, small and large businesses and our communities.”
Jackson appears to have a slight edge in the polls, with the latest New York Times/Sienna poll putting him six points ahead. The same poll in September had Collins ahead with three points in September.
The latest University of New Hampshire Poll said he was nine points ahead while the CNN/SSRS poll gave him a narrow four-point lead.
Collins, however, is known to be a bit of a political survivor who has proven the polls wrong before. In 2020, some polls had Collins trailing by as much as 12 points when she came back from behind to win the seat.
Alaska
The race for traditionally ruby-red Alaska looks to be in contention this year.
Democrat Mary Peltola still leads Republican Dan Sullivan in the polls, but her lead in the New York Times/Sienna poll has narrowed from seven points in September to a single point in the latest poll released on Sunday.
The state’s Senate election is in Trump’s crosshairs after the New York Times reported a secret effort to stack the ballot to favour Peltola. It was reported that the Peltola campaign allegedly recruited another candidate called Dan J. Sullivan Jr., who has a similar name to the Republican nominee Dan S. Sullivan, to run to deliberately confuse voters.
In a post on Truth Social, Trump said this was “Voter Fraud at the Highest Level” and called for Peltola to be “removed from the Ballot and prosecuted.”
Alaska’s Republican Governor Mike Dunleavy ordered an inquiry into what he called “an organized effort to manipulate Alaska’s elections.”
Idaho and Montana
There is no Democrat on the ballot for the Senate in Idaho, where the Democratic nominee withdrew in July. Instead, three-term Republican senator Jim Risch is facing independent candidate and U.S. Army veteran Todd Achilles, who has previously served as a Democrat in the Idaho House of Representatives.
Despite a spirited campaign that has focused on the anger around affordability and data centre development in the state, Achilles is trailing in the polls. Even a Nexus poll commissioned by his own campaign has him down six points, while a Republican-sponsored poll puts Risch ahead by 27 points.
Montana is seeing a three-horse race, with Republican Kurt Alme facing Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead and independent candidate Seth Bodnar.
While Bankhead won the primary, polls show she has been trailing in third place with Alme the favourite to win the race. This has prompted several prominent Democrats, including former Transport Secretary Pete Butteigeg to endorse Bodnar over the official party nominee.
New Hampshire and Minnesota
Democrat Chris Pappas, who became the first openly gay member to represent New Hampshire in 2018, is heavily favoured in the polls win the race for senate.
The most recent New York Times/Sienna poll had Pappas up by 12 points over Republican John Sununu, who has Trump’s endorsement, while the most recent UMass Lowell poll had him up by seven.
Polls are divided on how wide Democrat Peggy Flannigan’s lead is in Minnesota, with the New York Times/Sienna poll putting her ahead by 14 points.
On the other hand, a Mason-Dixon poll conducted for the Minnesota Star Tribune in October had Flannigan, the state’s Lt. Gov., leading Republican conservative commentator and Republican candidate Michele Tafoya by four points.
Everyone vote Democrat. Ground beef is $6.30 a gallon. Guys, please vote these bums out.
Nash. Carney didn’t promise a desl at sny cost. That’s a Con error blown out of proportion in the echo chamber. But why haven’t you answered my question. Do Cons expect a deal regardless of the terms? If so thst’s a good reason why the Cons shouldn’t be in office ever.
As for Trudeau junior, he was a terrible PM who stayed too long. On one hand, he got a pipline to the West Coast and he took us through COVID. On the other hand he didn’t give us proportional representation or run a rational economic policy – remembervthe budget will balance itself. So I was never a Trudeau Jr supporter.
@Memberberry 1000pm. Anonymous just can’t get over his obsession with Ben. He even posts as Ben because he wants so badly to be like him. Pathological.
@Rich. It seems you want to make excuses for why Canrey can’t deliver or keep his election promises. You probably did the same for Trudeau.
‘member just before the trade deadline, after the bridge lies and after the “put it on me, blame me” and after the concessions leaked out?
‘member Ben was in here all day friday touting this great deal and praising Carney on behalf of the EU leaders…
‘member on Saturday Ben thought it was a bad deal and agreed with what we all said for the past 3 days?
‘member everyberry wanted to know what Carney gave up already before walking away and ‘member Ben told us to wait and see the details before judging.
‘member Ben said later that we should not get to see the details and and should take lying Carney’s word.
‘member Ben is a dumbass?
Jeff. Did I use big words. Sorry. I’ll try to dumb things down for you next time.
@Anonymous 814pm. The only reason you find Rich insufferable is because he exposes how completely hollow your arguments are. You are the poster child for overconfidence paired with utter incompetence. You bluff and puff like a blowfish and try to substitute empty performative posturing and bullying for intelligence. Rich and Ben are just out of your league.
@Rich Didn’t Carney say Canada has the best deal? So which is it. Carney can’t keep his story straight and that is a problem.
Congrats Rich, you write a two hundred word paragraph to say nothing!? You are definitely in same league of twits as Ben, continue to make ALL the rest of us LAUGH, and I mean LAUGH HARD 🤣
I will vote for Trump regardless. The Democrats are to socialist and worse then the Liberals under Trudeau.
Nikki. Carney didn’t say thst he was going to get a deal. He and Trump fast tracked negotiations to try to get a deal. That is an important distinction that can’t be overlooked. In August 2026 they were close until the US introduced new conditions that were unacceptable. Harper said Carney was right to walk away. No deal is woth a bad deal. We have precedent. Simon Reisman walked out of the original FTA negotiations rather than accept a bad deal. The negotiations continued and we got the FTA in 1988. I don’t understand why Cons can believe that Carney must take whatever Trump offers. That’s poor negotiating tactics. Makes me hsppy that we have Carney and not Poilievre.
Congrats Ben, you easily fool the fools, your fellow Libbys with your regurgitated pablum, soap boxing, spin doctoring, weasel words, yapping, jive talking,hot air, hokum, baloney,bunkum, keep spouting off, we enjoy a GOOD LAUGH, 😂, maybe ONE DAY, you’ll actually say SOMETHING, until then continue to make us laugh 👍😂
@Rixh. Carney biggest election promise. Getting a deal with Trump is still outstanding. You don’t have to be MAGA or a Conservative to figure that one.
Canadians are so self absorbed. They think the US election is about them, which it isn’t.
Anonymous. Nothing better than insufferable? You are proving my point that none of the Cons on this site have said anything relevant in their comments. Just pointless hot air. Well done.
Let’s vote Ben off the island.
Congrats Ben, you get the low IQ libby award. Everyone thinks your low IQ comments are a joke.😂
Oh, I see Insufferable Rich needs to fill in for Ben’s shattered egom
Ben you are clueless but keep commenting it’s hilarious 😂
Tony. Deluded I see. Carney has been working non-stop to diversify Canadian trade. We’ve had tangible results in the form of increased exports overall with a reduction in exports to the U.S. of that amount and an increase to the rest of the world; en route to the 50:50 goal set. The vast majority of Canadians support Carney’s efforts. You, and all of the other Cons here, seem to think that an economy can be turned no a dime in a day, but that can’t be done. Just like Trump’s 90 deals in 90 days was ridiculous. Instead of complaining, bitching and moaning, the Cons would do better to come up with a reasonable idea and work with the Government to implement it. Remember, being the official opposition does not mean mindlessly opposing everything and passing on unsupported opinions and disinformation. If the Cons did that they might have a shot at forming government sometime in the dim and distant future.
Hey Rich. I guess you forgot PP said to cancel the consumer carbon tax in 2022 and Carney got around to it in 2025. Your comment is absolutely priceless.
@Rich. What are you talking about. Carney is PM has got nothing done so far. PP offered info Carney didn’t listen to. Stop blaming Conservatives because the Liberals can’t get anything done.
Congrats Ben, you definitely fooled alot of low IQ libbys with your bafflegab, gibberish, mumbo-jumbo, hogwash, poppycock, balderdash, fiddle paddle comments but I see right through it and just take it for what it is, a DAMN GOOD LAUGH 😂 , keep on entertaining, you are very good at making us laugh 👍
Canada is not even a concern down here. We don’t care one bit.
In the past Cons would sometimes come up with good ideas. Seems like those days are long past. None of the Cons here have expressed a good idea or supported it with anything approximating facts. Instead its just endless, stupid personal attacks on someone they disagree with, but can’t out argue. All of these comments can be boiled down to: “It’s not fair. He’s smarter than us.” You should try to do better, but you’re going to be tripped up by your inability to do better.
Ben, you’re rowing a boat without paddles, sailing in circles in an alternate reality, completely oblivious to what’s happening around you. You’re as easily fooled as a newborn discovering the world, swallowing whatever nonsense is put in front of you without a second thought. Honestly, your comments are a goldmine of comedy. Every time you weigh in, the entertainment just writes itself. Keep going! 😂
Ben you’re rowing a boat without paddles, living in an alternate reality, like a newborn baby discovering surrounding, easily taken in, easily fooled but your comments are little insights to laugh out loud😂
Ben you are clueless and naive, but keep talking nonsense, it’s hilarious 😂
Ben you are simple minded, lost at sea, befuddled and easily duped, but keep up with the nonsense comments it’s good for a belly laugh 😂
Congrats Ben I think you impressed yourself with razzmatazz, gobbledygook, pseudo intellectual, smoke and mirrors,buzz word bingo, talking to yourself but I’ll just continue laughing, thanks and carry on and be helpless 😂
Ben keep up the good work. The reaction from “Anonymous the Village Idiot” is hilarious.
Ben. You’ve touched a nerve with the Cons. Not to worry though. It’s not like any of them are smart, as shown by their comments.
Only morons think taxes are not taxes.
trumpers.
David Best talks about Kate Perry. That’s how bright the incel is.
Ben, when you post comments can you make it a little easier for “Anonymous The Village Idiot” to read. He doesn’t understand your wit and flails about like a child in his comments.
@DJT. Looking forward to playing our little piddle game again.
They are taxes, not tariffs.
@Donald Trump. Because of Canada’s useless Prime Minister and his bootlicking sidekick Insufferable Ben.
None of the faux news sites have reported how the USA has reduced the trade deficit by $100B for the first time ever. Many smart people said it couldn’t be done so I did it to prove them wrong.
You stupid snow-Mexicans took it too personal, and your little runt P.M. set you all up to fail. We wanted to reduce the trade deficit while you wanted to go to war.
Don’t worry we are taking good care of your jobs.
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
-DJT
Anonymous the Village Idiot…there you are. An army of one. (LOSER) Pile on with all your alias’s ! Can’t take a little push back without flailing about on your keyboard. Pathetic.
We all despise Ben to his very core. Pile on everyone lets get rid of him!
Poor aanonymous is on a negative rant (again) because everyone commenting is smarter than him.
Maybe Justin Trudeau can marry Katy Perry, get American citizenship and then run for politics there in the good old USA…. Can you imagine that? The democrats would love to have that dummy in their party.
Ben is a former TruAnon. He is a blind partisan and true believer of the LPC.
@ anonymous 5:23 typical Canuck with inferior complex.
Insufferable Ben, Carney and you can tuck your tiny docks between your leg all that you want.
Typical Fat pig MAGA yank in the picture
Voting for Trump is still better than voting for the Democrats who have the same values as the Carney Liberals. Hard core socialism is a hard sell in the USA, and for good reason. Canada is not a “big” deal in the midterms no matter what the Liberal Minders say. It is a nothing issue down here in Arizona.
I doubt the democrats will ever flip Montana.
The picture shows that the midterms are not “shaping up”, but they are morbidly obese.
The Visual Capitalist has Canada being polled quite low on the welcoming scale of countries involved in the dataset.
Still far from the buttom, but increasingly further from the top as well.
On overall we rated almost twice as bad as the US held above us.
The worst category, was in making friends and I think that says more of the intentional demographic shift imposed on Canadians than Liberals are willing to admit.
I really do hope Trump is somewhat more inclined to strike a deal with Carney regardless of the outcome.
Beyond his Omnibus Bill with a petulant name Canadian politicians are only too fond of, Trump has passed Executive Orders over getting Republicans in Congress or Senate to have much of an egenda to speak of.
I hope Republicans can push forward policies Democrats can get support as well.
I tire of domestic or continental politics devolving into hate fests of the wickedly inarticulate.
We need to move away from the edge of the precipice that is extreme and divisive politics and the irresponsible discourse it generates.
Amongst the states that share a border with Canada, Dems currently hold 6 while Republicans hold 7.
I hope there is an upset but most of the gubernatorial races are fairly safe for both.
Hopefully this is not a case of misdirected strategy for Canada, not that they were ever interfering.
DUMP TRUMP!!
I really don’t care how much Carney needs to be surrounded by agreeable people to function.
That’s his obstacle.
Insufferable Ben, Carney and you can tuck your tiny docks between your leg all that you want.
Carney is the failure whose ego got in the way of keeping his promises.
I don’t care how much crow the miscreants needs to eat to keep our economy intact.
Hopefully, regardless of the outcome, Carney actually makes an effort to close a deal that is not disrupted by his privileged sense of self.
Hopefully they elect a bunch of democrats so Trump will be more reasonable to Canada.