Trust the maternal instincts on the future of the Gardiner Expressway. Thirty-four per cent more mothers disapprove of replacing Gardiner with an urban boulevard, especially when it would worsen commute times in Toronto.
A recent poll by the Toronto-based Forum Research revealed that 44 per cent Torontonians disapproved of replacing eastern section of the Gardiner Expressway with an eight-lane boulevard if this move would increase commute times. Another 33 per cent still approved of the proposal, whereas one in four Torontonians had no opinion about the issue.
The Forum Research poll highlights the views of the silent majority in Toronto that missed the public hearings where a vocal minority has been the dominant voice advocating for demolishing the Expressway and replacing it with a boulevard. Demolishing the Expressway will increase travel times across Toronto. This concerns the majority who, as is evident from the Forum Research poll, overwhelmingly opposes the move.
Until recently, the travel time implications of the proposed demolition of the Expressway were not even disclosed to the public. It was only in February 2014 that the City Staff rather reluctantly admitted that replacing the Expressway with a multi-lane boulevard (the replace option) will result in significantly longer commutes for those approaching the downtown from Eastern parts of Toronto. Still, the City Staff tried to present the replace option as the preferred option. It should not come as a surprise to the City Staff that most Torontonians would not support a project that is likely to worsen their commute times.
A breakdown of the survey results showed that those whose commute times were adversely affected by the replace option were least likely to support it. Conversely, those whose commutes were unaffected by the move were in favour of demolishing the Expressway. Planning theory and practice requires that one should not be oblivious to the plight of those whose welfare is adversely impacted by the infrastructure development. The debate about the fate of the Gardiner Expressway ignored these first principles in infrastructure planning.
Parents, especially mothers, are more sensitive to commute times as they rush from one destination to another dropping children to schools and rushing to work afterwards. The survey notices the differences in preferences of parents and others. Parents were 32 per cent more like to disapprove of demolishing the Expressway, whereas non-parents were 20 per cent more likely to disapprove, especially if it would increase their commute times. Similarly, women in general were less in favour of demolition than men were.
Residents in the eastern and northeastern parts of Toronto will be the most affected by the replace option and hence they oppose the move in large proportions. Fifty per cent of the residents in Scarborough, for instance, disapproved demolition compared to 28 per cent who approved it. Similarly, 50 per cent of the residents in North York disapproved demolition compared to 30 per cent who approved it.
The split in opinion between drivers and public transit users was again expected and largely explained by self-interest. Drivers were 51 per cent more likely to oppose the replace option whereas transit riders were 3 per cent more likely to approve of the replace option. Similarly, those who owned their homes reported greater opposition to demolishing the Expressway than those who did not own their homes, proving yet again that those whose welfare was adversely impacted by the longer commute times were the most likely to oppose demolition of the Expressway.
The Forum Research poll illustrates a key aspect of public opinion research: respondents with complete information decide differently from those with incomplete information. Note that the questionnaire first asked the respondents to have an opinion about the future of the Gardiner Expressway without referring to worsening commute times. The survey put the following question to respondents:
‘City planning staff have recommended tearing down the portion of the Gardiner Expressway east of Jarvis Street, and replacing it with a ground level, eight lane road to and from the Don Valley Parkway. Do you approve or disapprove of this proposed road?’
Without consideration for travel times, the opinion was rather equally split on the replace option such that 39 per cent approved of demolition and 37 per cent disapproved of the plan. Still, a larger proportion of mothers (parents in general) and residents of the Eastern parts of Toronto opposed demolishing the Expressway. The majority opinion, however, switched completely when travel time considerations were added to the mix. Note the revised question below:
‘This proposed road would have traffic signals that would add to existing commuting times to and from the Don Valley Parkway. Do you approve or disapprove of this proposed road?’
With travel time considerations in the mix, suddenly the overwhelming majority switched sides and opposed demolishing the Gardiner Expressway.
Demolishing the Gardiner Expressway will result in longer commutes by both car and public transit. The majority of Torontonians oppose plans that will lengthen, rather than reducing, the commute times. Toronto City Council should take note.
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