The U.S. has won an “overwhelming victory” in the Iran war and there is a “new regime” in Tehran, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said in a press conference Wednesday, but some experts have raised doubt the accuracy of many of his claims.
After a tumultuous Tuesday that began with U.S. President Donald Trump threatening that “a whole civilization will die tonight,” Washington and Tehran agreed to a ceasefire deal less than two hours before Trump’s deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran had closed the critical global shipping route after the U.S. and Israel launched the war on Feb. 28, spurring a global energy crunch and soaring prices.
“Iran begged for this ceasefire,” Hegseth told reporters Wednesday.
Operation Epic Fury – the codename of the U.S. war on Iran – “was a historic and overwhelming victory on the battlefield,” he added.
“Iran’s air force has been wiped out,” he said.
“We own their skies,” he added, less than a week after Iran shot down a U.S. fighter jet.
“Iran no longer has any sort of a comprehensive air defence system,” he said, adding however that Iran can “still shoot.”
While Iran may “shoot here and there” but they can “no longer build missiles,” Hegseth said.
Hegseth also claimed that the Iranian navy is “at the bottom of the sea.”
“This new regime was out of options and out of time, so they cut a deal,” Hegseth said.
EU and NATO leaders, including Prime Minister Mark Carney, issued a joint statement on Wednesday, calling for “quick progress towards a substantive negotiated settlement.”
“The goal must now be to negotiate a swift and lasting end to the war within the coming days. This can only be achieved through diplomatic means,” the joint statement said.
What were the U.S.’s stated goals in Iran?
Trump’s justification for why the U.S. launched the war on Iran has shifted repeatedly since Feb. 28. But Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the U.S. joint chiefs of staff, said the attacks had three core goals.
“Destroy Iran’s ballistic missile and drone capabilities, destroy the Iranian navy, and destroy their defense industrial base,” Caine said.
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“Since the beginning of major combat operations, the United State’s Joint Force has struck more than 13,000 targets,” he said, adding that the U.S. had destroyed 80 per cent of Iran’s air defence systems, “striking more than 1,500 air defense targets, more than 450 ballistic missile storage facilities, 800 one-way attack drone storage facilities,” he said.
As well, Iran’s then-Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei was killed in U.S. and Israeli strikes on Feb. 28. He was promptly replaced by his son Mojtaba Khamenei. U.S. and Israeli strikes also targeted and killed several other top Iranian officials.
How much damage did the U.S. and Israel do?
According to some estimates, Iran had 570,000 active-duty troops as of 2023 and 350,000 reserve troops, bringing the total to just under a million pairs of boots. This is in additional to paramilitary forces.
In addition to around a million troops, Iran has a range of military assets, including both short- and medium-range ballistic missiles.
While Iran’s airforce had suffered “extensive damage,” Hegseth’s claim that the Iranian airforce had been “wiped out” may be difficult to prove, said Kevin Budning, director of scientific research at the CDA Institute in Ottawa.
U.S. strikes on critical targets such as air defence systems, radars, runways, and aircraft on the ground hit Iran hard, but Tehran has “leaned heavily on its unmanned systems,” he added.
“Drones and other asymmetric capabilities have played a central role in its response, with thousands launched against regional and U.S. and Israeli targets since the conflict began, allowing Iran to retain some capacity to project force despite losses to its traditional air force,” Budning said, adding that if a ceasefire holds Iran will undoubtedly restock its air-missile defence and drone capabilities.
The U.S. and Israel did constrict Iran’s ability to launch missile strikes from western Iran, a report by the Institute for the Study of War published Tuesday said.
However, it added that Iran has other facilities from which it can launch missile strikes.
“Iran has two prominent missile bases located near Tabriz—the Southwest Tabriz and Amand missile bases—that the combined force has struck several times in this conflict. Iran has increasingly launched missiles from central Iran as the combined force has degraded its ability to launch missiles from western Iran,” the report said.
“Iran may seek to transfer missiles to western Iran that do not have a sufficient range to reach Israel if they are launched from central Iran,” the report added.
It added that U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian railways and roads may have hindered Iran’s ability to “move weapons, including missiles and missile launchers or components, across Iran.”
Iran’s missile capabilities have been “significantly degraded,” Budning said.
“However, it would be inaccurate to suggest these capabilities have been fully destroyed.,” he added.
Iran may have been saving some of its resources for a longer conflict or confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz, another report suggested.
“One of the mysteries of the war is why it has not fired more of its cruise missiles. The optimistic answer is that they have been largely destroyed; the likelier one is that Iran has held many back as they are a particularly useful capability for close combat in the Strait of Hormuz,” a report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies said.
While Hegseth said the U.S. had destroyed the Iranian navy, experts argue that Iran’s ability to maintain its chokehold over the Strait of Hormuz doesn’t come from a conventional navy.
“The US has made much of the extent to which it has degraded Iran’s naval capabilities. But many of these successes have been against what might be described as Iran’s more conventional naval assets,” a separate report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies said.
Iran’s naval prowess comes “not from Iran’s conventional navy but from its considerable array of land-based anti-ship missiles and its unconventional and asymmetric arsenal of one-way attack uninhabited aerial vehicles (UAVs), swarms of small attack craft and potentially uncrewed surface vessels, midget submarines, and limpet and other naval mines,” it added.
Trump and Hegseth’s claim that there is a new regime in Tehran is “fallacious,” Budning said.
“There is no evidence that the current government has fallen, and the claim is simply unfounded. While the war has killed many senior Iranian leaders, including the former Ayatollah, the regime has demonstrated resilience in its ability to sustain these losses by promoting successors in their place,” he said.
If anything, facing massive mass protests earlier this year and facing war with both the U.S. and Israel has “likely further entrenched it in power and will push its leaders further away from ever making moderate concessions,” he added.
Trump is the one that caved not iran. Nice try.
The US just gave Iran the knowledge how to fight the US: weaponize the Straight of Hormuz. Now, Iran benefiting more with sanction relief. There is no regime change as Donny says. Im sure they will continue do what they do. Even add more weapons around the straight as negotiation tool for future conflicts. Iran just came out stronger out of this conflict provided by the Donny. Another failed Crusade led by Pete.
Iran is going to “guide” ships through the Strait?! This is an unmitigated defeat for the US and the Trump administration. No amount of bluster and bravado from an alleged world power can cover up this disaster. Iran CONTROLS the Strait no matter what.
So, you cut off the tongue but they can still speak? You claim victory but seem to be unable to stop them from shooting.
Whatever. You have made the world hate the entire American way. The globe is siding with the Mideast. The globe hates Trump, and his cronies. Thats a fact. Time for the USA to lose big time. Time for Trump to fall, hard.