TORONTO – A political tsunami in Quebec has dramatically shifted support away from the Bloc Quebecois, according to the latest polling data on public opinions in that province.
Quebecers have amplified their support for the NDP by 14 per cent, according to polls conducted by Ekos, Forum research, Ipsos, Nanos and CROP.
Barry Kay, an expert on public opinion and elections, said Quebec has seen an historic decline in support for the Bloc, now down 10 per cent since the 2008 federal election.
Kay is an associate professor at Ontario’s Wilfrid Laurier University and a member of the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy (LISPOP).
Kay said support for the NDP is up by 20 per cent since the last election.
“Quebec has marked what has been one of the most dramatic transformations of public opinion in memory,” Kay said.
The decline in Bloc support “suggests that the seat projection for the province is much more tenuous than usual.”
Kay adds that data might understate NDP gains in Quebec. In polls conducted between April 18 and April 20, the NDP was on track to win 52 seats across Canada, including a projection of 15 seats in Quebec.
The Bloc Quebecois was projected to win 39 seats in Quebec.
The Conservatives lead in seat projections with 149 projected wins across Canada. The Liberals trail with a projection of 68 seats nation-wide.
The NDP also had some gains in Western Canada, with a projection of 11 seats in British Columbia.
The Liberals are projected to win just six seats in that province, with the Conservatives taking the majority with a projection of 19 seats.
The following seat projection is based upon a blended and weighted sample of polls from Ekos, Forum research, Ipsos, Nanos and CROP (Quebec only) conducted between April 18-20. Approximately 8000 respondents are included in the aggregate figures.
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