Prime Minister Mark Carney’s popularity may be cooling off in the summer but remains broadly positive, a new poll from Abacus Data suggests.
The Carney-led Liberal government’s approval rating dipped to 50 per cent in the firm’s latest polling, down two percentage points compared to mid-July and the lowest level since March.
With 48 per cent viewing Carney favourably and 19 per cent disapproving, the prime minister maintains a positive net approval. That figure is a couple percentage points lower than in Abacus’s previous poll.
Abacus CEO David Coletto said in a statement accompanying the new poll that Carney’s drop in popularity could be tied to a lack of perceived progress on key domestic files and ongoing high-profile international negotiations.
Canadians were surveyed in the week after U.S. President Donald Trump levied new 35 per cent tariffs on Canada — seemingly a consequence of failing to secure a new trade deal by the Aug. 1 deadline.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who will attempt to regain a seat in the House of Commons in an Alberta byelection slated for Aug. 18, meanwhile broke even on his approval ratings.
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At 42 per cent positive and 41 per cent negative, Coletto said the results were Poilievre’s “best net rating in months.”
Trump maintains a largely negative perception among Canadians at a net approval rating of -62.
Despite a modest cooldown for the Liberals, political preference has been largely unchanged through the summer.
The Abacus poll suggests that if an election were held today, the Liberals would secure 43 per cent of votes from decided voters and Conservatives would land 40 per cent. Those figures are unchanged from mid-July, while the remaining federal parties secured single-digit support from decided voters in the survey.
“Support for the governing Liberals remains strong, vote intentions haven’t moved, and the desire for change is static,” Coletto said.
“In short: no new movement, no new momentum.”
Coletto said that, for now, Canadians are separating frustration on key files from blame on the government, but that could change, particularly as domestic economic issues top voter concerns.
Cost of living remains the dominant issue identified by 62 per cent of Canadians, up from 59 per cent in Abacus’s previous poll.
Dealing with the Trump administration was the second-place priority at 44 per cent, followed by the broader economy, housing affordability and health care to round out the top five.
Abacus Data surveyed 1,686 Canadians from July 31 to Aug. 7. A comparable probability-based random sample of the same size would come with a margin error of +/- 2.4 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
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