British Columbia’s latest snowpack and water supply bulletin says drier, warmer weather last month has contributed to an early melt, raising concern for widespread drought this summer.
By early May, the bulletin says about five per cent of B.C.’s annual snowpack has typically melted, but 15 per cent had melted by the start of this month.
The bulletin from the province says snowpack was an average of 71 per cent of normal as of May 1, decreasing from 79 per cent of normal on April 1.
The figure is slightly higher than last year, when B.C.’s snowpack was an average of 66 per cent of what would be normal on May 1.
The bulletin says low snowpack, early snowmelt and warm seasonal weather forecasts all point to “elevated drought” this summer.
It says rivers on Vancouver Island, the South Coast and in northeastern B.C., where snowmelt is not a significant contributor this spring, are flowing “at or near record low levels for early May.”
Still, the bulletin notes spring and summer temperatures and precipitation are also key factors that will influence drought conditions.
Seasonal weather forecasts from Environment Canada in late April indicate a greater likelihood of above-normal temperatures in B.C. through July, it says.
The bulletin says May is forecast to be wetter than normal in parts of northern B.C., while it’s expected to be drier in the south.
Snow basins are greater in higher-elevation regions compared with 2024 as more snow accumulated throughout the season, it says, but lower-elevation basins tend to have a lower level due to earlier melting.
Snowpack levels on May 1 were under 60 per cent or “well-below” normal in the Upper Fraser West, Lower Thompson, Nicola, Bridge, Skagit, Central Coast, Similkameen, and Skeena-Nass basins, the bulletin says.
There is no elevated flood risk based on the current snowpack. However, in areas with low snowpack, the bulletin notes key flood risks shift toward heavy rain, either short-duration events or prolonged periods of wet weather.
“It is important to note that May and June are wet months through the B.C. Interior with the potential for extreme precipitation patterns,” it says, adding the flood season can extend into July in the Rockies and the northeast.
“Therefore, precipitation poses a flood risk through the spring even with limited snowpack,” the bulletin says.