What Trump’s second term could mean for U.S. diplomacy

Hungary’s fiery, right-wing leader says Donald Trump’s victory will help his own battle against immigration and multiculturalism and restore traditional family values.

In Argentina, a president who once bear-hugged Trump at a political conference in Maryland is attacking his critics as rats and parasites, ranting against what he calls a corrupt elite and calling climate change “a socialist lie.”

Trump’s second term could realign U.S. diplomacy away from traditional international alliances and more toward populist, authoritarian politicians, according to both those leaders and outside observers.

Two days before Tuesday’s election, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán made a daring prediction.

“Donald Trump will be president again, and that means by the end of the year, pro-peace political forces will be in the majority in the West,” Orbán told state radio.

Orbán has been accused by the European Union of burying Hungary’s democracy by dominating media and building a network of loyal oligarchs. He has worried foreign leaders by drawing closer to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

What Orbán calls “illiberal democracy” has stigmatized civil-society organizations and cracked down on LGBTQ+ rights. It favors retaining power even if that means contravening traditional Hungarian allies’ interests.

Trump has avoided publicly criticizing Putin and has consistently spoken warmly about him.

“There is clearly that sort of authoritarian-minded chemistry,” between them, said Nigel Gould-Davies of the International Institute of Strategic Studies in London.

That chemistry aligns with Trump’s admiration for other authoritarian leaders, some of whom were elected by systems that were once democratic, Gould-Davies said, noting Hungary under Orbán as an example.

Trump has claimed that he will bring an end to Russia’s war in Ukraine “within 24 hours,” an assertion welcomed by the Kremlin, which currently holds an advantage on the battlefield as well as roughly 20% of Ukrainian territory.

Moscow may hope that Trump will sow dysfunction in NATO given his demands that other members of the alliance meet agreed military spending levels, and his warnings that Russia could “do whatever the hell they want” to those who fail.

Gould-Davies observed before the election that the Kremlin would welcome Trump’s victory because of his apparent desire for the war in Ukraine to end on terms favorable to Russia. Putin and other authoritarian leaders will be encouraged by Trump’s reelection, which will mean “much less emphasis in American foreign policy on the importance and value of human rights,” Gould-Davies said.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is one of his country’s both beloved and polarizing political leaders. Under Modi, Hindu nationalism — once a fringe ideology in India — has become mainstream, and nobody has done more to advance this cause than the 74-year-old leader.

Some critics believe Modi’s politics have divided India, especially along religious lines. He was accused of using hate speech against the country’s minority Muslim community, especially in the last phase of election campaigning this year when he ramped up rhetoric against them.

To his supporters, Modi is a political outsider who broke the country’s history of dynastic politics. His rise has been boosted in part by promises to overhaul India’s economy, but also by Hindu-first politics that have resonated widely in a country where 80% of the population is Hindu.

To his critics, Modi has strained democracy and threatened India’s secular fabric, while his attacks on media and free speech have grown in more than a decade of his rule.

Like Trump, Erdogan projects an image of strength that prioritizes national interests and relies on populist messages that present him as a champion of common people against elites.

The Biden administration has kept Erdogan’s government at arms’ length, but Trump and Erdogan have cultivated a cordial relationship. That’s despite a series of differences between their countries, like when the Trump administration removed Turkey from the F-35 fighter jet program in 2019 over Ankara’s purchase of a Russian-made missile defense system.

The president of Argentina has a brash style like Trump, rebukes multilateral institutions like the United Nations and has taken a disdainful approach to diplomacy, snubbing meetings with the leaders of traditional allies like Brazil and Spain.

For many observers, the most worrying parallel involves Milei’s claims that last year’s presidential election in Argentina was rigged against him. That, along with his efforts to downplay the atrocities of Argentina’s 1976-1983 bloody military dictatorship has raised concerns about his impact on democracy.

Milei congratulated Trump on his election victory Wednesday by posting an image on Instagram of the two men hugging in front of their nations’ flags.

“You know you can count on Argentina to carry out your task,” the caption reads. “Now, Make America Great Again.”

Analysts say his cash-strapped government — badly in need of support from the U.S., the largest stakeholder in the International Monetary Fund — has been betting on a Trump win. Milei’s administration is pinning its hopes on the idea that Trump could exert pressure on the IMF to lend more money to Argentina, its biggest debtor.

The fund is weighing whether to lend Argentina more cash, which Milei’s libertarian government needs to fully reenter the world market and exit currency controls. During Trump’s first term, the IMF granted Argentina — at the time led by conservative President Mauricio Macri — a controversial $57 billion bailout.

Mariano Machado, principal analyst for the Americas at Verisk Maplecroft, a global risk intelligence firm, said that while U.S. institutions and separation of powers are designed to prevent autocratic rule, “Argentina is now going back to a phase where the very parameters of its institutions are being pressured.”

While a leftist, Fico has used rhetoric similar to Trump’s.

Fico even compared the July assassination attempt against Trump to his own wounding in a shooting in May.

“It is a carbon-copy scenario,” Fico said. “Political opponents of Donald Trump are trying to imprison him, and when they don’t succeed, they enrage the public so much that some loser picks up a gun.”

Like Trump, Fico displays contempt for the mainstream media, and has declared war on illegal immigration. Fico has faced criminal charges for organized crime, which he denounced as politically motivated. The case was eventually dismissed.

The Slovak leader has condemned the West’s approach to the war in Ukraine and canceled weapons shipments to Kyiv.

Fico, like Orbán, is known for his pro-Russian views, opposes EU sanctions on Moscow and has said he would block Ukraine from joining NATO.

Suzan Fraser in Ankara, Turkey, Isabel DeBre in Buenos Aires, Krutika Pathi in New Delhi and Karel Janicek in Prague contributed.