The ‘third scenario’ preoccupying Canada’s government as the U.S. votes

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has received multiple briefings on the possibility of prolonged unrest or even violence in the wake of Tuesday’s U.S. election, a senior government source told Global News.

It’s the “third scenario” that has been discussed by senior officials, cabinet ministers and the prime minister in the event neither Donald Trump nor Kamala Harris wins a decisive victory Tuesday night.

Just eight years ago, it would’ve seemed remarkable that the Canadian government would be spending time at the most senior levels discussing the possibility of dramatic instability following a U.S. presidential election – be it widespread protests, uncertainty around the winner or even political violence.

Trump’s victory in 2016 – and the chaos of the following years, culminating in the attack on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 – has changed that.

For live coverage when polls close, globalnews.ca has up to the minute results.

The official – who has direct knowledge of the briefings but would only talk on the condition they not be named – said opinions differ within the government about the likelihood of that third scenario, and that most of the discussions have focused on how Canada reacts to either a Trump or a Harris win. There is general confidence that, no matter the outcome of Tuesday’s vote, U.S. institutions are strong enough to weather the fallout, the source said.

But there have been troubling signs that election denialism and calls to violence have been growing in the weeks leading up to Tuesday’s vote.

The Global Project Against Hate and Extremism, a U.S.-based charitable organization that tracks transnational extremist activity, reported last month that it observed a significant increase in “violent rhetoric related to election denialism” in October.

“We are seeing the same warning signs of political violence based on election denialism combined with violent language across fringe platforms that we saw in the weeks before the 2020 election and before the January 6, 2021 insurrection at the Capitol,” the organization wrote.

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“Posts made on (social media platform) Telegram include using election denialism to justify an apparent ‘inevitable civil war’ and a call to ‘shoot to kill any illegal voters.’ Throughout the year, (far-right group) Proud Boys online accounts … have been calling for elected officials to be ‘arrested, tried for treason, and hanged,’ and called for their supporters to ‘keep your rifles by your side.’”

Trudeau’s office declined to respond to detailed questions from Global News for this piece. Instead, the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) pointed to Trudeau’s comments last month on a Village Media podcast.

“I have been very careful about making sure that Americans know that this is their choice to make, and my job as a Canadian prime minister is to stand up for Canada whoever they elect,” Trudeau said.

The prime minister added that his government has already dealt with challenges during Trump’s last term – including renegotiating the North American free trade pact and responding to attacks on Canada’s steel, aluminum and agricultural sectors.

But Trudeau said Harris has “certain protectionist tendencies” when it comes to trade too, which is now “par for the course” in Canada-U.S. relations.

“So, one of the things I reflect on is, it looks like the election will be so close, to a certain extent, that many of the factors that we’re going to be struggling with in the future, we’ll be struggling with independently of who actually ends up sitting in the White House,” Trudeau said.

“Having that steady approach that is there to substantively protect Canadian interests, which is the foundational job of any Canadian prime minister, is what I’ll be doing.”

Speaking to reporters at the House of Commons Tuesday, Global Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly said that government is in a better position to renegotiate free trade deals with the next administration than they were during the first Trump presidency. Multiple cabinet ministers told reporters that they have been working for months to prepare for those negotiations.

John Manley, a former Liberal deputy prime minister, said he thought it was “unusual” that senior politicians and public servants would be gaming out scenarios for possible uncertainty and unrest. But he said after the Jan. 6 riot, those conversations are “understandable.”

“And given that the former president continues to go out and say, you know, if we lose (it’s) because they stole it or, you know, hatching other conspiracies about stolen elections despite all evidence to the contrary, there’s reason to believe that some of his supporters would carry it to the extreme (like) they did on January 6th, 2021,” Manley told Global News.

Manley added that the Canadian government is also likely worried that any unrest could spill over the Canada-U.S. border.

“The one thing that I would keep an eye on in that case is some of these groups are very reckless. They’re heavily armed. And we may need to start for the first time in our history as a country to think about defending our southern border,” Manley said.

Of course, a decisive victory for either Harris or Trump Tuesday does not preclude the possibility of unrest in a deeply polarized America.

Even before polls opened, Trump has been baselessly telling his followers that the Democrats plan to steal the election – repeating his unfounded claims that the 2020 election was stolen for President Joe Biden. It does not seem likely that Trump will graciously concede defeat.

A Trump victory could also spark widespread demonstrations and protests in major American cities, like those that took place after his 2016 victory.

“I think the only thing that I really worry about more than anything is that the result is so close that it leads to, you know, chaos in the United States,” David MacNaughton, Canada’s former ambassador to the U.S., told The West Block’s Mercedes Stephenson this week.

MacNaughton was Canada’s envoy to Washington from 2016 to 2019, during Trump’s first term, so he’s familiar with unrest in America. He said in a situation like the 2000 presidential election between George W. Bush and Al Gore, which had to be resolved at the Supreme Court, “you can just imagine the turmoil that would go on.”

“So I hope one way or the other, it’s clear. I think we can deal with either outcome, but I think chaos would not be good for anybody.”

With a files from Global’s Touria Izri and the Canadian Press.